Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 201532

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1032 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Gusty nwly winds continue, along with some post-frontal stratocu,
across the region this morning. Temps steadily climbing
nonetheless, and are fcst to reach into the 60s areawide by this
aftn. For the update, have made only a few minor adjustments to
sky grids to better match current satellite obs/trends. The
remainder of the fcst is in good shape and will not be making any
other changes attm. /12/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/

For the ArkLaTex, a deck of low VFR cigs extends from near KTXK to
KMLU some heating may add to it`s SW extent later this morning/aftn
while rotating around a deep low over the OH valley. High pressure
building in underneath will have the sfc winds NW and gusty
peaking out around 15-25KT into the mid afternoon and then falling
off quickly by sunset as the sfc wind decouples from the NW flow
aloft. SKC overnight with KLFK calm and NW/N 3-5KT for KELD/KMLU.
Outlook, dry wx and southerly winds for late work week. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/

The morning GOES 16 satellite imagery indicates extensive bands of
post-frontal stratocu which continue to spill SE into the region,
in wake of the cold front which has pushed into the Nrn Gulf and
far SE LA/coastal MS. The Wrn extent of the cigs over E TX have
eroded over the last couple of hours though, but believe this
will be temporary as the short term progs suggest that cigs may
fill back in later this morning once diurnal heating commences.
Weak cold advection will continue through mid-morning before
ending, but a tight pressure gradient will persist again today in
wake of the strong sfc low which has pushed into Ern
TN/Appalachians. A portion of the 30-40kt NWrly LLJ behind the
attendant H850 low will mix down later this morning, and
gradually weaken during the day as this low pulls farther away,
but should be sufficient enough such that gusty NW winds of
15-20mph with gusts to 30 mph will again be possible over much of
the area. While winds will be marginal across portions of Deep E
TX as well as Scntrl AR, have elected to include the entire
forecast area in a Lake Wind Advisory from 9 am to 7 pm today as
even these areas could gust for a few hours today, before winds
quickly diminish after sunset. Given the post-frontal stratocu
cigs and gusty NW winds, max temps will be below normal and some
15-20 degrees cooler for this first day of Spring than what was
observed Monday. Sfc ridging will build SSE into Ecntrl TX this
evening, resulting in good radiational cooling over much of the
area overnight. Thus, min temps tonight will fall into the upper
30s to lower 40s, with patchy frost possible Wednesday morning
over Southeast Oklahoma and portions of Southwest Arkansas.

Sfc ridging will slowly traverse the region Wednesday, with
seasonal temps returning areawide, with another cool night
expected Wednesday night as good radiational cooling again sets
up over SW AR/much of N LA. Srly low level winds will return
Thursday allowing for a continued warming trend and air mass
modification, with the cu field quickly returning N across Cntrl
TX and OK, which should begin to gradually spread into E TX/SE OK
during the afternoon. The warming trend will only be enhanced by
Friday as ridging aloft spreads E across the Srn Plains and Lower
MS Valley, maintaining the dry conditions in place. This ridge
remains progged to flatten Saturday, with the potential for weak
ripples in the WSW flow aloft which may yield isolated convection
over much of the area.

The GFS/ECMWF begin to diverge thereafter with the GFS less
bullish in bringing a weak sfc front S into SE OK/SW AR Sunday,
placing the front about 100-150 miles farther NW than it did
Monday morning, with the ECMWF maintaining run to run consistency
over the last few days, and stalling the front late in the
weekend over Srn AR/the Red River Valley of Srn OK/N TX. Have
tailored Days 5 through 7 of the extended closer to the ECMWF
solution, maintaining low pops near the frontal bndry. However,
the upper flow looks to become more SW and dirty as we move
forward into the new work week, which could result in an increase
in convection especially near the front. Above normal temps look
to persist as well through the period.

Prelims to follow below...



SHV  65  43  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  64  43  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  62  35  68  39 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  62  41  67  44 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  63  39  66  38 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  65  42  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  64  42  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  68  43  74  47 /   0   0   0   0


AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-



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