113
FXUS64 KSJT 191140
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
640 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...Hot and Dry Again Today...

Not much to change to the forecast, as what we have out their
today will be very similar to what we have seen all week long.
Upper level ridge will remain in place and may even strengthen a
little, with 850 mb temperatures forecast to inch up a little for
this afternoon. This should mean that afternoon highs may be a
degree or two warmer than what we have seen, pushing a few areas
up towards the upper 90s. First thought is that San Angelo
(102 in 2019) and Abilene (99 in 1956) will remain a few degrees
below their record values but will need to watch. Continued south
to southeast winds off the Gulf of Mexico will continue to feed
low level moisture into the area and surface dewpoints are
creeping upward. Lows tonight likely above the 70 degree mark once
more.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Expect hot and mainly dry conditions through Saturday as a strong
upper level ridge centers over the Southern Plains. Temperatures
will be above normal with highs in the 90s. Will see a change in the
pattern as the ridge breaks down with weak cyclonic flow setting
up over our area and a cold front moving into the area by Sunday
night. The global models indicating a stronger upper level trough
middle of next week. However, The ensembles are weaker with this
system and still have time to watch. This all means increasing
upper level support, some instability and abundant moisture
leading to the NBM giving low to medium chances of showers and
thunderstorms early to middle of next week. Also, cooler
temperatures from Sunday onward with highs in the 80s to lower 90s
Sunday and mainly 80s next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Patchy MVFR cigs continue to spread north across the southern and
central terminals early this morning. These should be relatively
short lived and be dissipating by mid morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will return and continue through the afternoon and into
the evening hours. South to southeast winds will prevail and will
continue to be gusty at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  73  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  97  72  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    95  71  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   96  72  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  97  73  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       93  71  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       94  71  95  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...07