435
FXUS64 KSJT 201132
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
632 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

As of 230 AM, a broad swath of light to very light rain was
impacting most areas south and east of an Albany to Ozona line.
Rainfall rates with these showers are topping out at a few
hundredths an hour with the highest around 2 tenths of an inch an
hour across far southeastern Mason County. As this rain spreads
north and west, it seems to be losing its strength with radar
returns weakening significantly and most of this rain likely not
reaching the ground. A band of heavier rain is currently moving
through Llano and Gillespie counties and is moving west northwest
towards Kimble and Mason counties. Heavier rainfall rates closer
to 3-4 tenths of an inch per hour can be expected with this but it
is moving fairly quickly so the heavier burst will be short
lived. The overall complex of rain is expected to slowly drift
west/northwest through the morning with the bulk of the activity
out of our area by around 18Z. With our area on the far western
periphery of the upper ridge, some minor upper level impulses may
provide just enough additional lift to create some showers and
storms, especially across the southern half of the area as
abundant moisture will still be in place, along with marginal
instability at around 500-800 J/kg SBCAPE. These are expected to
be more diurnal in nature and are not expected to be severe. They
should gradually dissipate after sunset with the overnight hours
expected to be dry across the area. Daytime highs will remain
cooler in the mid to upper 80s with gusty east winds. Overnight
lows will be about the same as before in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A warming and drying trend will begin on Friday, as high pressure
rebuilds across West Central Texas and warm southerly flow
persists through the middle of next week. Afternoon high
temperatures will start off in the mid 80s to mid 90s on Friday,
increase into the mid 90s to near 100 by the end of the
weekend, then rise into the upper 90s to up to 104 by Wednesday.
Unfortunately, there are no precipitation chances expected
through the long term forecast at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

MVFR to LIFR conditions currently present at the terminals. A
large swath of light rain continues to move north and west across
the area with overall minimal reductions in visibility. Most sites
have seen steady drops in ceilings over the last hour or so with
widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings across the area. These are
expected to last through at least mid/late morning before they
lift back to VFR with clearing from the east. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon,
mainly south of the Big Country, so have included VCSH and VCTS
groupings to account for this activity. Winds will pick up a bit
out of the east with gusts between 18-25 kts possible this
afternoon, with the highest gusts likely at KJCT. Winds overnight
will become light and variable with MVFR ceilings beginning to
build back north after 04Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     86  71  90  72 /  20  10   0   0
San Angelo  88  71  92  71 /  50  20  10   0
Junction    87  72  89  70 /  40  30  10   0
Brownwood   87  71  89  70 /  20  10   0   0
Sweetwater  86  71  91  71 /  40  10   0   0
Ozona       86  70  88  70 /  60  30  10  10
Brady       85  71  86  70 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...50