Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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560 FXUS64 KSJT 251823 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 123 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 122 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...A significant severe weather event is possible across the central and southern Plains states this afternoon and evening... The latest severe weather/mesoanalysis analysis shows a dryline from Slaton to Midland to just west of Sanderson, moving slowly east. Also, meso sector 2 satellite imagery already indicates a few CI fails over Sterling and Coke counties. To the east of the dryline, there is extreme instability across much of our area, SBCAPES of 5000 to 6000 J/kg and rich low level moisture, dewpoints in the 70s, even upper 70s over the eastern Big Country. Also, effective shear values are 50 to 60 knots and the shear vector is perpendicular to the dryline, so that means separated storms and probably supercells to start with this afternoon. Looks like coverage of storms will remain isolated and most areas will remain dry. An isolated storm or two will probably develop by 3 PM due to low level convergence along the dryline or a local breach in the cap. The potential for this will along and east of a Sweetwater to San Angelo line, with maybe better coverage in the SPC Enhanced Risk Area. Any storms that develop will rapidly become severe due to the extreme instability and strong vertical wind shear with the main hazards being giant size hail(baseball size), damaging winds and tornadoes due to low level shear improving during the late afternoon and early evening. Keep up with the latest weather information and have multiple ways of getting warnings and watches! Most Hi-Res models indicate storms moving east of the area by 10 PM. However, a few models have isolated storm or two until 1 AM. Going with low chance Pops and severe wording across the Concho Valley, Big Country and Heartland early this evening. Going with a dry forecast after 10 PM through the rest of the short term. Expect hot and dry weather Sunday with highs in the upper 90s to around 103. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ....Unsettled Pattern to Return Next Week... Hot weather will continue for Memorial Day as an upper- level ridge persists over northern Mexico. Numerical guidance suggests yet another day of triple-digit heat with low overall rain chances. Starting Tuesday, the pattern looks to become unsettled again as an upper-level trough becomes established over the eastern US and puts the southern Plains into northwest flow. Models show multiple shortwave impulses aloft riding over the north edge of the weakening ridge through Friday. Warm temperatures in the low to mid 90s will be expected each afternoon with plenty of Gulf moisture in place due to southeast surface flow. A cold front should also dip into west central Texas late Monday night into Tuesday and stall through Wednesday. Thunderstorms should develop along both the front and the dryline late Tuesday with lingering convection possible Wednesday. The front should lift back northward on Thursday and provide even more chances for showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Conditions through the entire week are likely to be warm and muggy. However, local conditions may be impacted at times by cloud cover and cold pools left from earlier convection. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Expect isolated thunderstorms across much of the area mainly between 21Z and 04Z. A few storms may still linger until 07Z indicated by a few Hi Res models. Some storms may be severe. For now, will keep the VCTS at the KABI terminal for a few hours and will watch radar trends for possible amendments at the remaining terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and gusty south winds at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 71 97 66 97 / 20 0 0 0 San Angelo 72 99 63 102 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 75 104 66 106 / 10 0 0 10 Brownwood 71 96 64 95 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 71 97 66 97 / 10 0 0 0 Ozona 72 98 65 102 / 10 0 0 0 Brady 72 96 65 97 / 10 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...21