992
FXUS64 KSJT 201835
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
135 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Upper level ridging from this weekend will begin to slide off to the
east through the overnight hours tonight, putting our area in a zone
of southwest flow aloft. We`re already starting to see some high
clouds drift into our area this afternoon with increasing moisture
aloft and this trend will continue through the overnight hours.
Gusty southerly winds overnight tonight will keep overnight lows on
the mild side in the low to mid 70s. This will also replenish low
level moisture across the area which will allow for the development
of low clouds across much of the area late overnight and into the
early morning hours. These will scatter out by mid-morning only to
be replaced by another round of high clouds. Even with the 850 mb
thermal ridge remaining fairly strong across our southwestern
counties in the 28-30 deg C range, a lack of insolation will prevent
temperatures from climbing much higher than 100 degrees tomorrow.
Most locations will stay in the mid to upper 90s with the warmest
locations in the Western Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau.
The dryline will once again move east, bisecting our area by mid
afternoon. SPC has highlighted our eastern counties ahead of the
dryline in a Marginal Risk for their Day 2 Convective Outlook. The
threat is conditional with some hi-res guidance indicating a capping
inversion holding through the afternoon. Upper level support will be
on the marginal side this far south but there may be enough
convergence along the dryline to see some development by late
afternoon. With plenty of moisture and instability present ahead of
the dryline, storms will have the potential of becoming severe,
primarily posing a large hail and damaging wind threat. Confidence
in convective development is low overall with the CAMs being rather
anemic across our area. Even if storms do form, coverage is expected
to be highly isolated so many will likely not see any activity
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate hot and dry weather will result
from a high pressure ridge that sits over our area through Tuesday.
Then, a frontal boundary will affect the area on Wednesday
afternoon, which will limit high temperatures across the Big
Country to the middle 80s. This frontal boundary will combine with
a dryline off to the west to support thunderstorm development
during the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. Additional
activity is possible across the region on Thursday along the
dryline as a minor disturbance aloft also moves through. All of
this activity will have to be monitored closely for severe weather
potential. Conditions appear to be favorable for possible severe
weather on Wednesday and Thursday. With regards to Tuesday, a
Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place. However, it remains
to be seen if any thunderstorm development can be initiated. If it
does initiate, then these thunderstorms will certainly carry the
risk of severe weather. However, chances remain low (less than
20%) for thunderstorm development. Large hail and damaging winds
appear to be the main concerns at this time. Please check back
over the next day or two for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

MVFR ceilings at KJCT will scatter out by 18Z leaving VFR conditions
areawide through the rest of the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds out
of the south will come down slightly after sunset before picking up
again during the overnight hours. Gusts should remain less than 25
kts. MVFR stratus is expected to build back in from the southeast
late overnight, impacting all sites by mid morning. Confidence in
the stratus reaching KABI is on the lower side but have included
an MVFR group for the time being, though this may need to be
adjusted with further guidance. These clouds are expected to
scatter out by 16Z with all sites returning to VFR as winds begin
to pick up out of the southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     74  94  72  91 /   0  10  10  40
San Angelo  74  99  72  97 /   0   0  20  30
Junction    73 100  73  99 /   0  10  10  20
Brownwood   71  93  72  89 /   0  10  20  40
Sweetwater  74  97  71  91 /   0   0  10  30
Ozona       73  97  72  96 /   0   0  20  10
Brady       71  94  72  92 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...50