386
FXUS64 KSJT 220610
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
110 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

As of 130 PM, the dry line was oriented northeast to southwest
and was pushing towards San Angelo and Abilene. The southeastern
portion of our forecast area, including the Heartland and
Northwest Hill Country is under a slight risk for severe weather
today. The dry line could act as a trigger for convective
development this evening in the previously mentioned area. Right
now, CAMs are keeping storm coverage pretty sparse for our area,
so precipitation chances are on the low end for this evening.
However, with the environment we have in place, any storm that can
get going will have the potential for very large hail and gusty
winds.

A cold front will approach from the north tomorrow, likely making
its way into the southern Big Country or northern Concho Valley
by the mid afternoon. Behind the front high temperatures will drop
into the mid 80s to low 90s, while areas further south are in the
mid to upper 90s. We do have the potential for severe weather
tomorrow. Ahead of the front, instability will be very high (CAPE
values in excess of 3500 J/Kg) and wind shear will be significant
(>50kts). Storms could start as early as the mid morning hours, as
the lifting from the front might be enough to get storms going
despite the cap in place. These early elevated storms in the Big
COuntry will pose a threat for large hail. As we continue into the
afternoon and the cap erodes, additional storms could develop
with all severe modes possible including, very large hail,
tornadoes, and damaging winds. There will also be the potential
for heavy rainfall and flooding under thunderstorms, as PW values
approach 2 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

An unsettled pattern looks to continue Wednesday night through
Thursday. The front that will have pushed into central Texas on
Wednesday should retreat northward on Thursday morning and allow a
warm and unstable airmass to persist over the region.
Thunderstorm chances on Thursday should be focused mainly across
north-central Texas, thanks to mid-level impulses embedded in the
quasi-zonal flow. However, there will be some potential for severe
storms across the eastern Big Country and down to Brownwood.
Further southwest, storms will struggle to develop given the lack
of upper dynamics.

A hot and dry pattern is likely to take over for Friday through
Sunday. Although the upper-level pattern should remain generally
the same, the next couple of systems moving through the country`s
midsection are likely to bring a drier airmass into west central
Texas during this time. A weak frontal boundary looks to stall
around I-20 on Friday. This is likely to hold temperatures below
100 degrees for the Big Country on Friday afternoon, but no such
luck for areas further south. Otherwise, searing, and way-too-soon
triple-digit heat should take over for the holiday weekend.

Getting into early next week, models show that a stronger cold
front should drop into Texas for Monday and Tuesday. There is
still uncertainty in this solution, evidenced by the MEX guidance
showing highs in the upper 80s and the ECX guidance showing 100.
Regardless, we should hopefully see an increase in clouds and
chances for showers. If nothing else, the front could provide at
least some temporary relief from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

We currently have VFR conditions at all sites with SCT to BKN
upper level clouds streaming across the area. Although it`s
difficult to see through the high clouds, low clouds at MVFR
heights can be seen developing to our south and moving north into
our area. Have kept the same general timing of MVFR CIGs from the
previous set of TAFs. Will have MVFR ceilings affect all of our
sites tonight into the mid to late morning hours. A cold front
will move south into the area during day as well, turning wind to
the northeast at KABI by midday, as well as bringing a chance of
TSRA to KABI, KSJT, KBBD, and KJCT during the afternoon and
evening hours, that may bring temporary MVFR conditions as well as
gusty and erratic winds. After storms move out of the area between
00Z and 03Z, most sites should return to VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     87  68  91  70 /  50  20  20   0
San Angelo  95  70  99  67 /  20  20  10   0
Junction    95  71  99  73 /  30  20  10   0
Brownwood   91  70  89  70 /  50  30  30   0
Sweetwater  87  67  94  67 /  50  20  10   0
Ozona       96  70  99  68 /  10  20   0   0
Brady       93  70  91  71 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...20