013
FXUS64 KSJT 230852
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
352 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

....Severe Storms This Afternoon and Evening...

Early this afternoon, a cold front was making its way southward and
had become nearly stationary just north of the Concho Valley.
Thunderstorms have started to develop along this frontal boundary
and are expected to continue developing through the rest of the
afternoon.  The warm sector airmass is packing quite a punch, with
4000-5000 J/kg of CAPE.  Additional thunderstorms should also
develop along the dryline south of the front, which is mixing
eastward through early evening.  Storms should push southeastward
this evening and move into the Hill Country late this evening after
sunset.  Overnight, some lingering showers and or thunderstorms are
possible, but an otherwise mild night is expected.  By sunrise
Thursday, the frontal boundary will begin to lift northward again.
More thunderstorms are also possible as moisture makes a return and
the warm front provides decent lift, along with some upper-level
support from a passing wave.  However, most of these storms are not
expected to be severe as the area should see less instability.  As
the day continues, another upper level wave should move across
north Texas. While most of tomorrow`s storms should be across
north central Texas, some storms could still occur across the
eastern Big Country down to Brownwood. Otherwise, high
temperatures tomorrow could easily reach the mid 90s for most
locations, with the exception of areas that could see storms. The
caveat to the temperatures is that this evening`s storms may leave
behind a strong cold pool, which may hold temperatures down to
the upper 80s and low 90s. For now, it appears more likely that
highs will be toward the warmer end of guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A shortwave trough will track east across the northern Plains
Thursday night, with an associated weak cold front dropping south
across the Big Country on Friday. The dryline will mix east into
far southeast counties by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms
may develop along and south of the front and along the dryline
over far southeast counties during the late afternoon hours.
Although confidence remains low at this time, any storms that
develop will have the potential to become strong/severe given
very strong instability and plenty of shear (0-6 km around 40
kts). Models are quite anemic though, so kept POPs at 20 percent.

Hot and dry weather will be the main theme for the start of the
Memorial Day weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the
upper 90s to low 100s both days, with overnight lows in the upper
60s and lower 70s. A stronger front is expected to arrive early
on Memorial Day. The front will bring considerably cooler
temperatures to the area through mid week, with highs in the
upper 80s/low to mid 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Also, low rain
chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday, as a possible
disturbance in southwest flow aloft affects the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Redeveloping low cloud cover will expand considerably overnight
and envelop our TAF sites with MVFR to IFR ceilings. Patchy fog
development is also expected. Cloud cover will linger through the
morning into early afternoon, but ceilings will climb above
3000ft by mid-to-late morning. Clearing is expected from the west
and southwest later in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated in the early to mid-morning hours
in our central and eastern counties, with a lingering chance of
showers and storms in our eastern counties in the afternoon. East to
southeast winds 3-6 knots overnight will become south at 8-12 knots
by mid-to-late morning, with occasional gusts 18-22 knots at KABI
and KSJT by late morning into the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     90  69  94  65 /  20   0   0   0
San Angelo  98  67 101  63 /  20   0   0   0
Junction    98  71 102  70 /  20   0  10   0
Brownwood   88  69  94  69 /  40   0  10   0
Sweetwater  95  66  93  65 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       98  67 100  65 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       90  71  94  70 /  30   0  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19