819
FXUS64 KSJT 181912
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
212 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Early this morning, radar was picking up on two small clusters of
showers and storms: one across the Trans Pecos west of Crockett
County and the other just east of Lubbock. Both of these clusters
are slowly moving east towards our area. Have added some PoPs for
far northern portions of the Big Country as well as the Western
Concho Valley and Crockett County through the early morning hours.
Hi-resolution guidance shows most of the cluster east of Lubbock
staying north of our area with the cluster further south gradually
dissipating after sunrise. Elsewhere, low clouds are starting to
stream northwest out of the Hill Country and will continue to
overspread the area through mid to late morning before they
mix/scatter out. Most places should see plenty of sunshine by this
afternoon. The gusty southeast winds will continue through today,
reinforcing low level moisture across the area. This continued
presence and even slight increase in moisture will keep highs a
couple degrees lower than yesterday with most places topping out in
the low to mid 90s. As usual, the western Concho Valley will be the
hot spot across the area with temperatures in the upper 90s. With
deep tropical moisture surging ahead of the tropical depression in
the gulf, there is a very slight chance for highly isolated showers
and storms, primarily across the Northwest Hill Country and
Heartland today. Most shower activity should stay to our south and
east and confidence is too low to increase PoPs to the mentionable
category for this forecast package but felt it was worth a mention
here. Low clouds will build back in overnight from the southeast
with lows holding in the lower 70s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The tropical disturbance in the western Gulf is forecast to become
Tropical Storm Alberto later today and track into northern Mexico.
The track would take the heaviest rainfall into northern Mexico and
South Texas, which would keep the bulk of rainfall south West
Central Texas. Still, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible Wednesday night into Thursday, with the highest chances
across our southern counties. Given the farther south track into
northern Mexico, rain amounts across West Central Texas are looking
lower than previously forecast. Rainfall amounts will be higher
along I-10, in the 3/4 to 1 inch range, with amounts across the Big
Country forecast to generally remain below 1/4 inch. The increased
cloud cover will result in cooler temperatures. Highs on Thursday
will be in the 80s with highs on Friday  in the mid 80s to lower
90s.

Expect a general increase in temperatures this weekend into the
start of next week, with drier conditions. Highs Saturday will be
back in the low to mid 90s, with highs Sunday in the mid 90s to near
100.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Ceilings have lifted to VFR at the terminals early this afternoon.
Low level stratus will spread across the area overnight and
Wednesday morning resulting in another round of MVFR cigs. South-
southeast winds will remain gusty, with gusts of 25-32 knots at
KSJT and KABI through the evening hours. Finally, light showers
may begin to spread across the area on Wednesday most likely after
18Z so will not mention SHRA in this TAF package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  87  70  86 /   0  20  30  30
San Angelo  72  89  72  87 /   0  20  50  40
Junction    72  84  72  86 /   0  40  60  40
Brownwood   71  84  72  86 /   0  20  50  20
Sweetwater  71  90  70  86 /   0  10  30  40
Ozona       71  87  69  83 /   0  20  50  60
Brady       71  82  70  84 /   0  40  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...42