Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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359 FXUS64 KSJT 311123 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 623 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Main focus continues to be the QLCS moving southeast across the area early this morning. It has behaved itself lately and stayed below severe levels but is still being closely monitored. Most of this should move southeast and out of the area by sunrise. CAMs do show more convection developing before sunrise across the South Plains and Panhandle and tracking into West Central Texas to start the morning off. Given how worked over the airmass is across the area, a little dubious that the redevelopment will be quite as widespread as some of the models indicate. Will continue to carry POPs but will try to limit them to something less than "likely". As for the afternoon and evening, should see some sun and a chance for the atmosphere to destabilize once again, at least somewhat. Hard to tell at this point how quickly the air mass will recover, and where any leftover outflow boundaries will end up. Will carry a mention of storms into the afternoon and evening, although focused a little more on the eastern portions of the area where the CAMs are a little more aggressive. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A little more typical June set up for the weekend across the area, with a warm and unstable air mass remaining across the area. CAP will be a little stronger, shear a little less, and boundaries not quite as well defined as they have been the last few weeks. Some mainly diurnal showers and storms will be possible into Monday before a little drier regime takes over as the upper level ridge begins to take over. This upper ridging helps boost temperatures as well and not going to argue much with the model blends showing afternoon highs in the 100 to 105 range across the area by Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Finally got rid of the convection across the southern terminals only to have additional convection develop farther north. Will continue to use latest radar trends for best guess on timing of this activity to the terminal locations, but in general it looks like the central and northern sites are the most likely to see anything. Otherwise, a mix of IFR, MVFR, and VFR cigs continue across the area. These will gradually become VFR later this morning and continue into the afternoon and evening. CAMs continue to be uncertain about additional storm development later today and given how uncertain it is, will leave out for now and see how it develops before adding. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 81 66 86 68 / 50 10 20 30 San Angelo 87 69 92 69 / 30 10 20 30 Junction 91 71 95 73 / 30 10 10 20 Brownwood 81 67 85 70 / 50 20 20 20 Sweetwater 82 67 87 68 / 60 10 30 30 Ozona 90 70 92 70 / 20 10 20 30 Brady 82 69 86 70 / 40 20 20 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07