445
FXUS64 KSJT 310604 CCB
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
101 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

The latest severe weather/mesoanalysis analysis shows a dryline
well to our west over extreme SE New Mexico into the Trans Pecos
and an outflow boundary extended from south of the I-20 corridor
on west into the Permian Basin. Scattered thunderstorms are
located along this boundary as it continues to move slowly south.
The most unstable air is located south of the outflow boundary
with SBCAPES of 3000 to 4000 J/kg across the southern half of the
area. Also, effective shear values are 35 to 45 knots.

Thunderstorms will continue along the outflow boundary this
afternoon and may become severe in the next few hours across the
northern half of the area. Other storms, probably supercells will
develop along the dryline to our west over the southern Permian
Basin and Trans Pecos and move east into the western part our area
and merge with the outflow boundary storms by early this evening
and move east- southeast across much of the area to possibly the
I-10 corridor late this evening. Some storms will be severe with
the main hazards being very large hail, significant damaging
winds(possibly 80 mph) and a few tornadoes, especially near any
boundaries. The best penitential for more organized severe
weather will be in the Enhanced risk area or north of an Sterling
City to San Angelo to Brady line, but this area may shift a little
south. The convection will decrease in intensity after midnight
with maybe still a few isolated marginal severe storms. For
Friday, another day of scattered thunderstorms with a few severe
storms possible due to strong instability and good deep layer
shear. Will have to see how tonight`s convection plays out and
where the outflow boundaries setup for tomorrow and also the
dryline to our west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

By Friday evening, most model data generally agrees that our best
chances for convection will occur earlier in the day on Friday. With
that in mind, will keep PoPs limited to 30% or less for Friday
evening and overnight. Another shortwave is expected to move through
the area during the Saturday afternoon and evening timeframe, which
will continue the shower and thunderstorm chances going into
Saturday afternoon/evening. Additional shortwave energy, although
somewhat weaker is expected to move through on Sunday as well. The
best chances for precipitation associated with this feature will be
north of Interstate 10. Although it`s not possible to reliably
predict whether or not these storms will be severe more than a
couple days out, it`s certainly possible that additional severe
weather could occur either Saturday or Sunday.

By early next week, upper level ridging is expected to develop over
our area, which is expected to stifle precipitation chances, as well
as result in temperatures warming back up into the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A complex of thunderstorms, extending from east of Clyde to
northern Concho County to just north of San Angelo at 1250 AM,
will move quickly southeast across the Heartland and parts of the
Northwest Hill Country overnight. Strong winds on the leading
outflow have reached KSJT, and will affect the KBBD terminal around
7Z to 730Z. Expect visibility and ceiling reductions at KBBD in the
heavy rain accompanying this complext of storms. Anticipate that the
KJCT site will mainly have just wind gusts with the associated
rainfall occurring north and northeast of the site. Outside of the
convective activity, should have some low cloud development and
expansion late tonight into mid-morning Friday with MVFR ceilings.
Mainly southeast winds will prevail outside of the influence of
convective activity. While additional thunderstorms could occur
Friday into Friday night, low confidence in placement precludes a
mention at our TAF sites at this time. Anticipate updates with the
TAFs as convective trends become more clear.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  86  68  87 /  20  20  20  20
San Angelo  69  92  69  92 /  10  20  30  20
Junction    72  95  73  95 /  20  10  20  10
Brownwood   68  85  70  87 /  20  20  20  20
Sweetwater  68  87  68  88 /  20  20  30  30
Ozona       69  92  70  91 /  10  20  30  10
Brady       69  86  70  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...19