Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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585 FXUS64 KSJT 021904 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...Isolated to widely scattered storms possible again... Severe convection is currently moving south into the Big Country as of 2 PM this afternoon. This cluster of storms will likely lay down an outflow boundary, while moving south. Outside of that, the dryline will again tighten up to our west as shortwave energy moves into west and west central Texas. Currently, surface based CAPEs range from 3500 J/kg to as high as 5500 J/kg, and effective bulk shear values generally 35 knots to 45 knots. With these conditions, generally any storm that does develop will have a good chance of strengthening to severe levels, and be capable of producing hail over 2 inches in diameter, as well as wind gusts over 60 mph. In addition, any storms that interact with any outflow boundaries available will pose at least a small tornado threat. Outside of the storms just north of our area, expect dryline storms to develop by late afternoon or early evening. HRRR develops convection from the Caprock south into the northern Permian Basin by late afternoon which then moves east into our Big Country during the late evening hours. We could also see the small complex of storms moving into Haskell and Throckmorton counties right now continue south/southeastward into the eastern Big Country during the late afternoon and early evening. Outside of the thunderstorms, it will be another warm and muggy night, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with temperatures warming several degrees tomorrow. Highs will range from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 For Monday evening, isolated thunderstorms are possible, if the cap can be eroded, across mainly the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country. A few storms may be severe with the main hazards being large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, expect hot and mainly dry conditions for much of this week due to an upper level ridge building across the Southern Plains and a 850 MB thermal ridge of 28-30 deg C. Highs will be upper 90s to around 106 Tuesday through Thursday. Also, heat index values may reach 105 to 110 across the southern Heartland and Northwest Hill Country Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat Advisories may be needed for southern and western portions of west central Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Please follow heat safety precautions. Expect slightly cooler temperatures next weekend with highs in the 90s to around 100. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Most sites have not improved to VFR early this afternoon, but KJCT and KBBD continue to hang on to high end MVFR ceilings. Expect these to lift or scatter out with some additional warming over the next couple hours. We will have another chance for scattered afternoon and evening TSRA, with the best chances near KABI and KBBD. Have addressed these chances with some VCTS groups at those sites. Expect the thunderstorm activity to end around 06Z. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will move back in again early Monday morning, with generally south to southeast winds from 10 to 15 knots, with gusts to around 20 knots at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 71 95 72 101 / 40 20 10 0 San Angelo 73 100 73 104 / 20 10 0 0 Junction 75 100 75 103 / 10 10 10 0 Brownwood 72 91 71 96 / 30 20 20 0 Sweetwater 72 98 73 101 / 30 10 0 0 Ozona 74 98 72 101 / 10 0 0 0 Brady 72 93 73 96 / 20 20 20 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...20