Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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911 FXUS64 KSJT 201838 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 138 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level ridging from this weekend will begin to slide off to the east through the overnight hours tonight, putting our area in a zone of southwest flow aloft. We`re already starting to see some high clouds drift into our area this afternoon with increasing moisture aloft and this trend will continue through the overnight hours. Gusty southerly winds overnight tonight will keep overnight lows on the mild side in the low to mid 70s. This will also replenish low level moisture across the area which will allow for the development of low clouds across much of the area late overnight and into the early morning hours. These will scatter out by mid-morning only to be replaced by another round of high clouds. Even with the 850 mb thermal ridge remaining fairly strong across our southwestern counties in the 28-30 deg C range, a lack of insolation will prevent temperatures from climbing much higher than 100 degrees tomorrow. Most locations will stay in the mid to upper 90s with the warmest locations in the Western Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau. The dryline will once again move east, bisecting our area by mid afternoon. SPC has highlighted our eastern counties ahead of the dryline in a Marginal Risk for their Day 2 Convective Outlook. The threat is conditional with some hi-res guidance indicating a capping inversion holding through the afternoon. Upper level support will be on the marginal side this far south but there may be enough convergence along the dryline to see some development by late afternoon. With plenty of moisture and instability present ahead of the dryline, storms will have the potential of becoming severe, primarily posing a large hail and damaging wind threat. Confidence in convective development is low overall with the CAMs being rather anemic across our area. Even if storms do form, coverage is expected to be highly isolated so many will likely not see any activity tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 On Wednesday, a weak cold front is expected to stall across the Big Country, with a dryline mixing east into far western portions of the forecast area by late afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of these two features Wednesday afternoon and evening, but coverage of storms is a bit uncertain at this time due to limited upper level support. If storms manage to develop, then a few may become severe, with large hail and damaging winds the main hazards. Temperatures will be cooler on wednesday, especially behind the front across the Big Country. Highs will range from the upper 80s and lower 90s across the Big Country, and generally the mid and upper 90s elsewhere. The dryline will mix a bit farther east on Thursday, and thunderstorms may develop along and east of the dryline by late afternoon and evening. The best chance for storms will be along and east of a Sweetwater to Junction line. Coverage of storms is uncertain at this time due to a potentially strong capping inversion. Any storms that manage to develop will have the potential to become severe, with large hail and damaging winds possible. Highs on Thursday will range from the lower 90s across eastern sections, to the mid and upper 90s elsewhere. Mainly a hot and dry forecast Friday through next Monday, with west to southwest flow aloft prevailing. May see another weak front arrive across the Big Country Sunday night or Monday, which may bring another chance for showers and storms. Temperatures will be hot through the period, with highs upper 90s, to low 100s (102 to 104 degrees). Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 MVFR ceilings at KJCT will scatter out by 18Z leaving VFR conditions areawide through the rest of the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds out of the south will come down slightly after sunset before picking up again during the overnight hours. Gusts should remain less than 25 kts. MVFR stratus is expected to build back in from the southeast late overnight, impacting all sites by mid morning. Confidence in the stratus reaching KABI is on the lower side but have included an MVFR group for the time being, though this may need to be adjusted with further guidance. These clouds are expected to scatter out by 16Z with all sites returning to VFR as winds begin to pick up out of the southwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 74 94 72 91 / 0 10 10 40 San Angelo 74 99 72 97 / 0 0 20 30 Junction 73 100 73 99 / 0 10 10 20 Brownwood 71 93 72 89 / 0 10 20 40 Sweetwater 74 97 71 91 / 0 0 10 30 Ozona 73 97 72 96 / 0 0 20 10 Brady 71 94 72 92 / 0 10 20 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...50