Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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352 FXUS64 KSJT 232336 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 636 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Most of the convection has now exited the area off to the east, although a moist and unstable air mass remains. CAPE vales above 5000 J/Kg with little convective inhibition left and shear values of 45 to 50 knots. However, dryline remains fairly diffuse and not making only slow progress mixing east into a moist air mass full of clouds, although visible satellite is showing a little better cu development along the dryline across the western Concho Valley. There does not appear to be much support aloft with shortwaves now east of the area. Latest runs of the CAMs show very little convection for the rest of the afternoon and evening, focusing mainly along the dryline across Oklahoma and then along some outflow boundaries across North Central Texas. Given the air mass and its potential, and the agitated Cu field developing to the west, will pull the mention of storms farther west into the Concho Valley and Big Country this afternoon, but will limit to 20% for now given the lack of upper support. Dryline makes better progress across the area on Friday, with again the CAMs showing almost nothing for storms. Best chances are certainly east of the area for tomorrow afternoon and will keep POPs mainly out of the forecast for now. A little more downslope winds for tomorrow will boost temperatures to near or above the 100 degree mark for most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Most attention on the shorter term today, but still looks like a hot and dry forecast through Memorial Day for the area. Upper level ridge moves across the area, helping boost temperatures into the 100 to 105 range for some areas. Weak shortwave helps bring a chance of storms, more clouds, and slightly cooler temperatures for mid week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Storms west of Brady may affect the KBBD airport through 2Z as they move east. Storms north of KABI should stay north of the airport, but it may generate some gusty north winds through 2Z, if an outflow from the storm moves south. Areas of MVFR stratus possible late tonight through mid morning Friday from Sonora to Junction to Brady. Haze should be improving Friday morning as drier southwest winds and eventually northwest winds develop. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 69 94 64 98 / 20 0 0 10 San Angelo 67 100 63 102 / 20 0 0 10 Junction 72 102 68 104 / 20 0 0 10 Brownwood 69 94 68 96 / 20 10 0 10 Sweetwater 67 92 64 99 / 20 0 0 0 Ozona 68 99 65 100 / 10 0 0 0 Brady 70 96 68 97 / 20 10 0 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...04