473
FXUS64 KSJT 302256
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
556 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the Hill
  Country this afternoon and Big Country tonight.

- A few storms could produce severe wind gusts today.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
  Tuesday through Friday, with warm and humid conditions
  persisting.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Tropical moisture associated with the remnants of the Tropical
Storm Barry are resulting in numerous showers and thunderstorms
across South Texas. This slug of moisture is forecast to continue
to push north across Central Texas late this afternoon and
evening, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of
this activity could move into our southern counties later this
afternoon and evening. The better chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be across the Big Country, in the vicinity of a
weak cold front that will move into the region later today.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop across the Big Country and north of the Big Country late
this afternoon and evening, with this activity decreasing in
coverage Tuesday morning. A few strong to severe storms are
possible, with damaging winds being the main concerns. In
addition, locally heavy rainfall is possible. Overnight lows will
be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are again
possible on Tuesday. The higher chances will be across the
northern half of the area, closer to the remnant cold front. The
main concern will be locally heavy rainfall. Increasing cloud
cover along with possible showers and thunderstorms will result in
high temperatures below seasonal normals. Highs will be in the
mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

The subtropical ridge will remain east of the area through the
end of the week but will gradually shift westward into West Texas
by the weekend. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will track east from
the Desert Southwest and into the southern Plains Thursday into
Friday. Deep south to southeasterly flow will persist across our
area in between these two features this week, with tropical
moisture lifting north across the area. This pattern will result
in warm and humid conditions through the end of the week, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday. The
best chance for rainfall (30-40%) will be across the northern
Edwards Plateau into western portions of the Concho Valley and
western Big Country. While severe weather is not expected,
precipitable water values will be high (1.75 to 2+ inches), which
will contribute to locally heavy downpours with the stronger
storms. Temperatures will be below normal Wednesday through
Friday, due to the increase in humidity and cloud cover, with
highs in the mid/upper 80s south, to the lower 90s north.

A return to dry and hotter conditions is expected by the weekend,
as the subtropical ridge builds westward. Highs will climb back
into the mid and upper 90s for Saturday and Sunday, with overnight
lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. TSRA
could be affected by a few TSRA this evening, and have kept the
Prob30 group there for the evening hours. The other possibility
will be MVFR CIGs affecting KSOA Tuesday morning after 06Z
through mid to late morning. There will also be a chance for
isolated to scattered SHRA Tuesday, but timing, location, and
coverage are too uncertain at this time for a mention in these
TAFs.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  91  73  91 /  40  20  20  20
San Angelo  70  88  70  86 /  30  20  20  30
Junction    68  89  70  87 /  20  30  20  30
Brownwood   71  93  72  92 /  20  20  10  10
Sweetwater  70  89  72  89 /  60  30  20  30
Ozona       68  82  68  82 /  30  30  30  40
Brady       69  91  70  89 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...20