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673
FXUS64 KSJT 130947
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
447 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

Showers and thunderstorms have dissipated across most of the area
early this morning, with just a showers lingering over
Throckmorton County. Today will be much cooler in the wake of
yesterday`s cold front due to continued northeast low level flow
and abundant cloud cover. Highs will only be in the 60s for much
of the area. Will also keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast for today and tonight as weak ripples in the
southwest flow move overhead. High res models show the bulk of the
activity developing across the Big Country this afternoon. Severe
weather is not expected due to a more stable airmass. Expect cool
overnight lows, with temperatures dipping into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

No significant changes were made to the long term forecast. The
most certain expectation through the next few days will be cooler
temperatures, and extensive cloud cover. Models continue to show
the cold air mass remaining in place through Thursday, with warm,
humid air out of the south and east being lifted over the top of
the cold surface air. This will result in cloud skies, and
potentially periods of light precipitation Wednesday into
Wednesday night. However, while it`s pretty certain that
precipitation is expected, amounts are not expected to be
significant, average in the one tenth to one half inch range.

As mentioned in the previous AFD, an upper level trough is
expected to move through Thursday night into Friday. This may
result in more organized showers and thunderstorms Friday. After
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Wednesday and Thursday, highs on
Friday are expected to warm into the mid 60s to around 80 behind
a dryline that is expected to move east through the area. A cold
front will follow this, however, causing temperatures to cool back
down on Saturday. Although Chance PoPs were kept in the forecast
for Saturday, and Slight Chance held on in some areas Sunday,
models vary widely on rain chances, so confidence is low for this
weekend`s precipitation chances. Temperatures are expected to
start warming back up for the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

Showers and thunderstorms have mostly ended across the region
early this morning. Ceilings are mainly VFR but expect a gradual
lowering to MVFR through the early morning hours as low clouds
spread northward into the area. Additional showers are possible
this afternoon but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  49  60  49 /  40  40  60  50
San Angelo  64  52  64  52 /  30  30  60  40
Junction  71  57  71  53 /  30  30  50  30
Brownwood  66  53  66  51 /  30  30  40  50
Sweetwater  59  49  57  49 /  40  40  60  40
Ozona       65  53  68  54 /  30  30  50  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...42