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000
FXUS64 KSJT 172314
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
514 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue through 00Z Tue. Northerly winds
around 8-10 KT should quickly diminish below 8 KT by 01Z. SW winds
will increase to 5-10 KT after 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Cooler temperatures are in store for the remainder of this afternoon
as a cold front has moved across the region today. Most of the
breezy winds should be wrapped up by around 4 PM this afternoon.
Otherwise expect low temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 30s
for tonight, with no freezing temperatures expected. High
temperatures are forecast to reach into the low to mid 70s under
sunny skies for tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday Morning)

Long range models show an upper low digging across southern
California Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Models are
having difficulty with how far south it will dig and how fast it
will move east. Typically, upper lows are pretty difficult to
forecast. GFS phases northern and southern jet stream energy,
while the ECMWF doesn`t and could explain why the GFS could be a
little faster than the ECMWF with the speed of the upper low. Will
go with a blended approach for now.

In advance of the upper low, West Central Texas will be under an
upper level ridge Monday and Tuesday. This should give way to
sunshine on Monday and Tuesday, mild temperatures and increasing
south winds at 10 to 15 mph by Tuesday afternoon. Could see some
increasing clouds by Tuesday afternoon across the western areas.

On Wednesday, an upper level disturbance moves across the region and
may bring scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms to West
Central Texas. A surface cold front, moving south from the
northern Rockies across the Plains, should arrive mainly north of
I20 on Thursday, dropping highs into the 60s across the Big
Country on Thursday and into the 50s and 60s on Friday. It`s
possible this front may arrive a little earlier.

Lift from the approaching upper low pressure system above the
frontal boundary should result in a good chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday. Showers
should taper off by Saturday. Still, too early to tell best
location and amounts of rainfall expected.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  39  71  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  38  74  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  37  74  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  36  71  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  41  70  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       38  71  42  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...41/26
AVIATION...SJH