Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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852 FXUS64 KSJT 212315 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 615 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 As of 130 PM, the dry line was oriented northeast to southwest and was pushing towards San Angelo and Abilene. The southeastern portion of our forecast area, including the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country is under a slight risk for severe weather today. The dry line could act as a trigger for convective development this evening in the previously mentioned area. Right now, CAMs are keeping storm coverage pretty sparse for our area, so precipitation chances are on the low end for this evening. However, with the environment we have in place, any storm that can get going will have the potential for very large hail and gusty winds. A cold front will approach from the north tomorrow, likely making its way into the southern Big Country or northern Concho Valley by the mid afternoon. Behind the front high temperatures will drop into the mid 80s to low 90s, while areas further south are in the mid to upper 90s. We do have the potential for severe weather tomorrow. Ahead of the front, instability will be very high (CAPE values in excess of 3500 J/Kg) and wind shear will be significant (>50kts). Storms could start as early as the mid morning hours, as the lifting from the front might be enough to get storms going despite the cap in place. These early elevated storms in the Big COuntry will pose a threat for large hail. As we continue into the afternoon and the cap erodes, additional storms could develop with all severe modes possible including, very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds. There will also be the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding under thunderstorms, as PW values approach 2 inches. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 An unsettled pattern looks to continue Wednesday night through Thursday. The front that will have pushed into central Texas on Wednesday should retreat northward on Thursday morning and allow a warm and unstable airmass to persist over the region. Thunderstorm chances on Thursday should be focused mainly across north-central Texas, thanks to mid-level impulses embedded in the quasi-zonal flow. However, there will be some potential for severe storms across the eastern Big Country and down to Brownwood. Further southwest, storms will struggle to develop given the lack of upper dynamics. A hot and dry pattern is likely to take over for Friday through Sunday. Although the upper-level pattern should remain generally the same, the next couple of systems moving through the country`s midsection are likely to bring a drier airmass into west central Texas during this time. A weak frontal boundary looks to stall around I-20 on Friday. This is likely to hold temperatures below 100 degrees for the Big Country on Friday afternoon, but no such luck for areas further south. Otherwise, searing, and way-too-soon triple-digit heat should take over for the holiday weekend. Getting into early next week, models show that a stronger cold front should drop into Texas for Monday and Tuesday. There is still uncertainty in this solution, evidenced by the MEX guidance showing highs in the upper 80s and the ECX guidance showing 100. Regardless, we should hopefully see an increase in clouds and chances for showers. If nothing else, the front could provide at least some temporary relief from the heat. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR ceilings are expected through tonight with some MVFR ceilings redeveloping overnight tonight, and visibility reductions mainly at KABI under any thunderstorms that may develop Wednesday morning. Low clouds are expected to return to KJCT, KSOA, KBBD during the overnight period, and to KSJT and KABI during the morning hours Wednesday. A cold front will move south through the area tomorrow, switching winds to the north to northeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 71 87 68 92 / 10 50 20 20 San Angelo 73 95 70 98 / 10 20 20 10 Junction 75 95 71 98 / 10 30 20 10 Brownwood 73 91 70 89 / 20 50 30 30 Sweetwater 69 87 67 96 / 10 50 20 10 Ozona 73 96 70 99 / 10 10 20 10 Brady 73 93 70 91 / 10 40 20 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AP LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...TP