Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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559 FXUS64 KSJT 210820 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 320 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Our area will be under southwest flow aloft today and tonight with an upper level ridge to our east over the lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast states, and a broad upper trough over most of the western half of the CONUS. A dryline will mix east across at least the northern and western parts of our area today. By late afternoon, the dryline should extend from east of Wichita Falls to Putnam to just west of Sonora. A few thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening along the dryline. Carrying slight chance PoP for the area generally east of an Albany to Ballinger to Eden line. Cap strength will be an issue and may not have any storm development. However, with strong instability and effective bulk shear around 50 knots, have a conditional risk for large to very large hail and localized damaging wind gusts with any storms that can develop. Temperatures will be hot again today, especially behind the dryline. But some presence of high clouds should have a slight limiting effect. Expect highs to range from the lower to mid 90s in our eastern counties, to around 100 degrees in the western Concho Valley (including San Angelo) and along parts of the I-10 corridor. The dryline will retreat west and northwest of our area overnight, and low-level moisture transport with southerly winds will result in warm and humid conditions overnight. Lows will be 71-74 degrees across our area. Expect low cloud development from the south late tonight, to the I-20 corridor by daybreak. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...Chance for severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening... By early Wednesday morning, a cold front will be moving into our northern counties, with the front expected to make progress south of Interstate 20, and possibly into the Concho Valley and Heartland areas by mid to late afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along this boundary as it moves south. Plentiful moisture will be available in the low levels with dewpoint values well into the 60s to near 70 degrees for most of the area. A dryline may push into the western Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau areas during the afternoon, which would limit moisture, but also could provide a secondary focus for convection. South of the front, temperatures will warm well into the 90s to around 100 degrees, while along and north of the front, temperatures will be cooler, and may be affected by ongoing precipitation/cloud cover. Surface based CAPE will approach 4000 J/kg, and 0-6 km shear will generally be greater than 40 knots. Depending on the timing, some shortwave energy could also move through in southwest flow aloft. At any rate, if thunderstorms can get going they will quickly increase to severe levels with the ample instability. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly east of a Sweetwater/San Angelo/Sonora line. Although most of the more intense activity is expected during the afternoon and evening, if there are storms during the morning hours they could also be severe. Thunderstorms will be possible again Thursday afternoon. Once again, severe storms may develop, mainly east of a Sweetwater to San Saba line. From Friday through the Memorial Day Weekend, zonal flow to weak ridging is expected to develop aloft. This is expected to keep our weather dry, and our temperatures very hot with highs in the 90s to around 100 degrees, and lows from the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Low cloud development is expected late tonight through the early morning hours over most of the area roughly south of a Water Valley to Ballinger to Baird line. Cloud ceilings will be MVFR. The KABI terminal should be near or just north of the low cloud field, where scattered low cloud group is being carried with a temporary ceiling. Low cloud cover will break up mid-to-late morning with VFR conditions through the rest of the day. South winds will be occasionally gusty overnight, and winds will veer to the southwest at most of our TAF sites by late morning. With the exception of KBBD and KJCT, winds could veer further to the west in the early afternoon. By Tuesday evening, expect south or south-southeast winds. Any thunderstorm development should be isolated or widely scattered, and confidence is too low to include a mention in our TAFs at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 95 72 88 69 / 10 10 40 30 San Angelo 100 72 100 70 / 0 10 30 30 Junction 101 72 100 71 / 0 10 20 20 Brownwood 94 72 90 69 / 10 20 40 30 Sweetwater 98 71 93 69 / 0 10 30 20 Ozona 98 74 98 69 / 0 10 10 20 Brady 95 72 93 70 / 10 20 40 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...19