Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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323 FXUS64 KSJT 210556 AAB AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1256 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level ridging from this weekend will begin to slide off to the east through the overnight hours tonight, putting our area in a zone of southwest flow aloft. We`re already starting to see some high clouds drift into our area this afternoon with increasing moisture aloft and this trend will continue through the overnight hours. Gusty southerly winds overnight tonight will keep overnight lows on the mild side in the low to mid 70s. This will also replenish low level moisture across the area which will allow for the development of low clouds across much of the area late overnight and into the early morning hours. These will scatter out by mid-morning only to be replaced by another round of high clouds. Even with the 850 mb thermal ridge remaining fairly strong across our southwestern counties in the 28-30 deg C range, a lack of insolation will prevent temperatures from climbing much higher than 100 degrees tomorrow. Most locations will stay in the mid to upper 90s with the warmest locations in the Western Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau. The dryline will once again move east, bisecting our area by mid afternoon. SPC has highlighted our eastern counties ahead of the dryline in a Marginal Risk for their Day 2 Convective Outlook. The threat is conditional with some hi-res guidance indicating a capping inversion holding through the afternoon. Upper level support will be on the marginal side this far south but there may be enough convergence along the dryline to see some development by late afternoon. With plenty of moisture and instability present ahead of the dryline, storms will have the potential of becoming severe, primarily posing a large hail and damaging wind threat. Confidence in convective development is low overall with the CAMs being rather anemic across our area. Even if storms do form, coverage is expected to be highly isolated so many will likely not see any activity tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 On Wednesday, a weak cold front is expected to stall across the Big Country, with a dryline mixing east into far western portions of the forecast area by late afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of these two features Wednesday afternoon and evening, but coverage of storms is a bit uncertain at this time due to limited upper level support. If storms manage to develop, then a few may become severe, with large hail and damaging winds the main hazards. Temperatures will be cooler on wednesday, especially behind the front across the Big Country. Highs will range from the upper 80s and lower 90s across the Big Country, and generally the mid and upper 90s elsewhere. The dryline will mix a bit farther east on Thursday, and thunderstorms may develop along and east of the dryline by late afternoon and evening. The best chance for storms will be along and east of a Sweetwater to Junction line. Coverage of storms is uncertain at this time due to a potentially strong capping inversion. Any storms that manage to develop will have the potential to become severe, with large hail and damaging winds possible. Highs on Thursday will range from the lower 90s across eastern sections, to the mid and upper 90s elsewhere. Mainly a hot and dry forecast Friday through next Monday, with west to southwest flow aloft prevailing. May see another weak front arrive across the Big Country Sunday night or Monday, which may bring another chance for showers and storms. Temperatures will be hot through the period, with highs upper 90s, to low 100s (102 to 104 degrees). Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Low cloud development is expected late tonight through the early morning hours over most of the area roughly south of a Water Valley to Ballinger to Baird line. Cloud ceilings will be MVFR. The KABI terminal should be near or just north of the low cloud field, where scattered low cloud group is being carried with a temporary ceiling. Low cloud cover will break up mid-to-late morning with VFR conditions through the rest of the day. South winds will be occasionally gusty overnight, and winds will veer to the southwest at most of our TAF sites by late morning. With the exception of KBBD and KJCT, winds could veer further to the west in the early afternoon. By Tuesday evening, expect south or south-southeast winds. Any thunderstorm development should be isolated or widely scattered, and confidence is too low to include a mention in our TAFs at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 91 69 92 / 20 50 20 30 San Angelo 72 100 70 98 / 20 30 20 20 Junction 72 100 71 98 / 10 20 20 20 Brownwood 72 90 69 89 / 20 50 30 40 Sweetwater 71 93 69 94 / 10 30 20 20 Ozona 74 98 69 98 / 20 10 20 10 Brady 72 93 70 90 / 20 40 30 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...19