323
FXUS64 KSJT 241735
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1235 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A weak cold front will drop south across the Big Country by this
afternoon, with the dryline advancing into far eastern portions of
the forecast area by late afternoon. CAMs continue to be anemic
regarding convective development this afternoon. Despite the lack
of any appreciable upper level support, isolated strong/severe
storms are possible south of the front and east of the dryline
during peak heating (San Saba and Mason counties). Any storms that
develop will have the potential to produce large hail. Otherwise,
the front should reach portions of the Concho Valley and
Heartland by early evening before lifting back north tonight.
Highs today will range from the upper 80s and lower 90s across
the Big Country, to the upper 90s/low 100s over southern counties.
Lows tonight will be mainly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 455 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Hot temperatures will prevail this Memorial Day holiday weekend. The
dryline will mix east across approximately the western half of our
area Saturday, and through our entire area on Sunday. Given the
strength of the 850mb thermal ridging pattern and with ample
sunshine, highs are expected to be mostly in the upper 90s to 105
degrees across our area. Ahead of the dryline Saturday afternoon,
higher heat index values can be expected across the Heartland,
Northwest Hill Country and eastern Big Country. While the
possibility of a thunderstorm or two cannot be completely ruled
out Saturday afternoon ahead of the dryline in our eastern
counties, low confidence precludes a mentionable PoP except for
the far eastern Big Country. If a storm can develop, large to very
large hail and damaging winds would be possible given the
forecast strong instability with 35-45 knots effective bulk shear.

On Memorial day, a cold front is progged to move south across the
Big Country and possibly into our central counties by late
afternoon, and then across the southern half of our area Monday
night. Temperatures Monday will be a little cooler across the
northern third of our area with highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Highs ahead of the front south will reach the upper 90s to near
105 once again. If an embedded disturbance aloft moves over the
area, could have a possibility of showers and thunderstorms. At
this time, think any rain chances will be to our east/southeast
Monday.

Temperatures should be at least a little cooler Tuesday into
Thursday of next week, with increased cloud cover and chances for
showers and thunderstorms. With increased moisture during that
time, could have a couple of shortwave troughs move across our
area. Preliminary indication is for highs to range from the mid
80s to mid 90s in our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon and evening across
West Central Texas terminals. Dryline moving into the area has
shifted the low clouds west of the area, with the cold front
advancing into the Big Country as well. Winds will shift southwest
and then northwest across the area this afternoon/evening, before
back to the south tomorrow morning as the low level moisture and
low clouds move back into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     92  66  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
San Angelo  99  65 102  73 /   0   0   0  10
Junction   102  70 104  74 /  10  10  10  10
Brownwood   94  69  94  72 /  20  20  10  10
Sweetwater  91  65 100  71 /   0   0  10  10
Ozona       98  67  99  72 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       94  70  96  73 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07