Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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497 FXUS64 KSJT 190540 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1240 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Hot and dry conditions will prevail across the area through Sunday as the area remains under short wave ridging aloft. Skies will be mainly clear through tomorrow, with overnight lows in the upper 60s tonight, with highs tomorrow afternoon similar to today, ranging from the low to mid 90s east, to the upper 90s to near 100 west. Expect light winds tonight, with south winds gusting 20 to 25 mph tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 An awfully summer-like pattern is shaping up for the long-term duration of the forecast. With upper level ridging staying in place through Monday, the trend of hot temperatures and little cloud cover will continue with highs in the upper 90s to around 103. The next upper level trough begins to move north and east out of the Baja California region Monday night, putting our area in increasing southwest flow aloft. We`ll see an increase in high clouds Tuesday but with the 850 mb thermal ridge expanding into our area with temperatures in the 27-30 deg C range across our western counties, temperatures will likely be even warmer in the mid 90s to around 105. The dryline is expected to bisect our area on Tuesday afternoon so there is a slight chance we could see some storms develop in the more unstable air of the Heartland and Western Concho Valley, ahead of the dryline. A weak frontal boundary is expected to make its way south into the region during the day on Wednesday. The front is expected to stall out somewhere in our vicinity and create chances for showers and storms starting late Wednesday and continuing through Thursday. Current indications show this front weakening and lifting north through the day on Thursday. Areas in the Big Country and Heartland will likely see the greatest reprieve in temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the mid 80s and everywhere else remaining in the 90s. By Friday, the effects of the front will largely have worn off with temperatures right back into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Weak zonal to southwest flow aloft will continue into the weekend but with the dryline staying situated across our area, any chances for showers and storms look to stay off to our east. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR through the next 24 hours. Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots tonight will increase to 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts out of the south by mid to late morning Sunday. Winds will decrease back to around 10 knots shortly after 00Z Sunday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 97 71 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 101 70 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 100 69 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 91 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 99 72 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 98 69 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 94 68 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...20