Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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410 FXUS64 KSJT 172311 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 611 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Temperatures this afternoon are around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon north of I-10, thanks to the clear skies and increased sunshine. We could see a few isolated storms late this afternoon and evening as the upper level short wave moves east over our area. Any thunderstorms that develop will likely be in our southern counties, near I-10, with a smaller chance of storms further north. It is May in Texas, so we can`t completely rule out severe thunderstorms, but the chance for severe weather is lower today compared to yesterday, and most of the activity (if any develops) is expected to remain below severe thresholds. Winds will become light and start to switch back to the south this evening and overnight as a high pressure builds at the surface to our southeast. Temperatures tomorrow will continue to increase as an upper level ridge begins to build over the area. Highs will be almost 10 degrees above normal, with values approaching 100 in some areas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Hot and dry conditions will be the theme for much of the long term forecast, at least through Wednesday next with the approach of another cold front on Wednesday and upper-level disturbance on Thursday bringing an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms mid-to-late next week. High temperatures across the weekend are likely to range in the upper 90s to near 103 in some areas for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. General upper level ridging will build across the area through Tuesday next week, with breezy southerly surface flow persisting across much of the region through Wednesday morning. What looks to be a weaker cold front will track through West Central Texas on Wednesday, mainly moderating temperatures but potentially bringing some showers and thunderstorms to the eastern portions of our area. By Thursday, an upper-level disturbance will track from west to east across the area and aide in the development of some showers and thunderstorms across much of West Central Texas. Currently, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in both of these scenarios, especially with regards to coverage and strength, but is it something that most models are beginning to agree on. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR conditions should prevail across West Central Texas terminals into Saturday. Some high based cu late this afternoon will dissipate this evening, while some storms south of the area produce a veil of high clouds across mainly the southern terminals as well. Watching a few storms south of KJCT but these look like they will stay south and will not add a mention of them at this point but will continue to monitor. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 60 93 68 96 / 10 0 0 0 San Angelo 59 98 70 100 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 61 98 70 99 / 20 0 0 0 Brownwood 60 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 61 96 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 60 97 69 97 / 10 0 0 0 Brady 61 93 68 93 / 10 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AP LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...07