694
FXUS64 KSJT 280519
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1219 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...Severe Thunderstorms with Damaging Winds Possible Late
Tuesday...

Late this afternoon, a frontal boundary was stalled just north of
Interstate 20, while a dryline was mixing eastward through the
Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau.  At the upper-levels the
subtropical jet was located over the southern Plains, allowing a
strong mid-level ridge to be in place across west Texas and New
Mexico. This setup was effectively capping most of the area to
convection, with the exception of the Hill Country where dewpoints
were in the upper 60s to low 70s. Some weaknesses in the ridge
could allow some scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon in
the more humid airmass. Any storms should wind down no later than
midnight and the dryline will retreat westward.

Tomorrow, the setup looks much more volatile. Surface features
will be similar, but the upper level ridge will break down as a
shortwave disturbance looks to move quickly across the region
through the day. Heating in a very moist warm sector will likely
lead to a very unstable airmass to the tune of over 5000 J/kg of
CAPE with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Hi-res
models show a complex of storms developing near Wichita Falls
along or just north of the front by midday, then pushing southward
through the afternoon and evening. Models also show storms firing
along the dryline over the Permian Basin and western Concho
Valley by mid-afternoon. The upper-level support and highly
unstable airmass should help storms to quickly grow upscale
through the afternoon and evening as they move south and east.
Strong mid-level westerly flow could contribute to thunderstorms
producing damaging winds of 70-80 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Storms are expected to merge into a large storm complex which
will be move southeast through West Central Texas Tuesday
evening. Nearly all of West Central Texas has been upgraded to an
enhanced risk of severe storms by SPC day 2 outlook. GFS MUCAPES
of 2500 to 4000 J/KG, with 0-6km shear of 40-50 KTS. Damaging
winds of 80 mph or more may be possible in some storms...which is
the greatest threat. Large hail also possible along with perhaps
an isolated tornado.

A moist unstable airmass will continue over West Central Texas
into the weekend, with dew points remaining into the upper 60s to
lower 70s. The best chance of storms each day will be in the Big
Country. Potential for severe thunderstorms will continue, along
with localized flooding. Temperatures will be mainly in the 80s in
the Big Country with 90s to the south through Friday, with 90s
returning Saturday and Sunday, with perhaps 100 again in the
Concho Valley Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Main issue for the aviation side will continue to be the chances
for convection across the area that will impact terminals. Latest
CAMs continue to have their differences, but will lean towards a
more typical late afternoon and evening time frame for most of
the storms, which is in line with the latest HRRR. Have included
PROB30s for now and will update later once the timing becomes more
certain. Otherwise, will continue to watch observational trends
for more MVFR cigs to develop and move north across the terminals
this morning, although abundant high clouds from a large
convective complex to the south is both disrupting some of the
MVFR cloud formation as well as hiding it where it is developing.
Whatever forms should be relatively shortlived and
lifting/breaking up by mid to late morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     91  66  82  67 /  60  60  50  30
San Angelo  97  67  89  68 /  50  50  40  20
Junction    99  69  93  71 /  30  50  30  30
Brownwood   89  67  81  67 /  50  70  50  30
Sweetwater  94  66  82  67 /  60  50  50  30
Ozona       94  67  90  71 /  40  40  30  20
Brady       91  67  84  68 /  40  60  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07