Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
110 FXUS64 KSJT 270941 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 441 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Drier west to northwest air was moving in behind a surface trough/Pacific front located from Junction to Brady to Brownwood at noon, where dew points were in the lower 70s. A few cumulus were developing in this area, but it should remain capped as the drier air moves in. The drier air will be only temporary, however, as southeasterly winds return, bringing dew points back into the 60s to near 70s from Junction to Brownwood in the morning Monday and into the eastern Big Country east of an Abilene to Throckmorton line in the afternoon. Added a slight chance of thunderstorms from Junction to Menard to Brownwood in the afternoon, where the NAM NEST and HRR models hint at afternoon convection. A few storms may develop later in the evening along east of a Junction to Abilene to Haskell line, where SPC has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 432 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...Unsettled weather expected this week... Rain chances will increase across the area beginning Tuesday and persisting through the rest of the week. For Tuesday, the threat for severe storms will increase across much of the area. A stalled frontal boundary is expected to be over the Big Country on Tuesday, with a dryline extending south of the front across West Texas. Despite weak mid level riding over the area, models indicate several disturbances propagating through the flow aloft by late afternoon/early evening. Strong to extreme instability will be in place across the area by late afternoon, with CAPE`s 3000 to 4000+ J/kg per latest model data. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front and dryline Tuesday afternoon, with renewed convection possible over the area into the evening hours. Currently, there is a slight risk for severe storms for much of the area Tuesday afternoon/evening, with large to very large hail and damaging winds the main severe hazards, although and isolated tornado is also possible. Will maintain medium to low end high POP`s across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. In additional to the severe threat, PW values will be high (1.5 to 2.0 inches), which will contribute to torrential downpours and a threat for localized flooding. The overall pattern changes little Wednesday through the end of the week, with a medium chance for showers and thunderstorms persisting through the period. While at least some threat for severe storms may exist just about each day, the threat for additional heavy rainfall and flooding may be more of a concern, as a very moist airmass persists across the area. Precipitation chances will decrease by the weekend, but isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible Saturday and Sunday, so will maintain low POPs across the area. As for temperatures, we finally get a break from the oppressive heat this week, with daytime highs mainly in the mid/upper 80s to lower 90s from Wednesday through the weekend, although highs may not get out of the 70s across the Big Country on Wednesday. Overnight lows will predominantly be in the 60s through the extended period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue the next 24 hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon near the KBBD and KJCT terminals, but confidence was too low to include a mention in this TAF package. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 100 71 90 65 / 0 20 60 60 San Angelo 104 73 96 67 / 0 10 60 50 Junction 105 71 98 69 / 20 20 40 50 Brownwood 97 70 89 67 / 20 20 50 60 Sweetwater 101 71 93 66 / 0 10 70 50 Ozona 102 73 95 67 / 0 10 50 40 Brady 99 70 92 67 / 20 20 50 60 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...42