681
FXUS64 KSJT 261802
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
102 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Drier west to northwest air was moving in behind a surface
trough/Pacific front located from Junction to Brady to Brownwood
at noon, where dew points were in the lower 70s. A few cumulus
were developing in this area, but it should remain capped as the
drier air moves in.

The drier air will be only temporary, however, as southeasterly
winds return, bringing dew points back into the 60s to near 70s
from Junction to Brownwood in the morning Monday and into the
eastern Big Country east of an Abilene to Throckmorton line in the
afternoon. Added a slight chance of thunderstorms from Junction to
Menard to Brownwood in the afternoon, where the NAM NEST and HRR
models hint at afternoon convection. A few storms may develop
later in the evening along east of a Junction to Abilene to
Haskell line, where SPC has a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

....Unsettled Pattern to Return Next Week...

Hot weather will continue for Memorial Day as an upper-level
ridge persists over northern Mexico. Numerical guidance suggests
yet another day of triple-digit heat with low overall rain
chances.

Starting Tuesday, the pattern looks to become unsettled again as an
upper-level trough becomes established over the eastern US and puts
the southern Plains into northwest flow.  Models show multiple
shortwave impulses aloft riding over the north edge of the weakening
ridge through Friday.  Warm temperatures in the low to mid 90s will
be expected each afternoon with plenty of Gulf moisture in place due
to southeast surface flow.  A cold front should also dip into west
central Texas late Monday night into Tuesday and stall through
Wednesday. Thunderstorms should develop along both the front and the
dryline late Tuesday with lingering convection possible Wednesday.
The front should lift back northward on Thursday and provide even
more chances for showers and thunderstorms through Friday.
Conditions through the entire week are likely to be warm and muggy.
However, local conditions may be impacted at times by cloud cover

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Dry west to northwest winds will bring VFR conditions to the
region and tonight, but MVFR haze possible at KJCT towards 12Z
Monday as moisture and haze from South Texas begins to return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     66  99  70  90 /   0   0  20  60
San Angelo  63 103  71  96 /   0   0  10  50
Junction    68 106  70  98 /   0  20  20  30
Brownwood   65  97  70  89 /   0  20  20  50
Sweetwater  66 100  72  92 /   0   0  10  70
Ozona       66 103  73  95 /   0   0  10  40
Brady       65  98  70  91 /   0  20  20  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...04