Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
410 FXUS65 KSLC 310857 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 257 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS...The main story through midweek will be a series of dry cold fronts crossing portions of northern and central Utah, keeping temperatures from warming more than 5 to 10 degrees above normal. All that will change by mid to late week next week as a heat wave continues to be likely...bringing the hottest temperatures of the season. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Sunday)...Summer has largely arrived to the Beehive State, though occasional weak cold fronts will keep temperatures across northern Utah getting more than 5 to 10 degrees above normal until late in the long term forecast period. Early morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates the northern stream remains quite active, with a series of shortwave troughs continue to round the eastern Pacific ridge. A weak cold front currently somewhat discernible across southern Utah will lift north ahead of the next shortwave trough and be a focus for isolated high-based convection near the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Given the very dry subcloud environment, expected gusty and erratic microburst winds to be the main threat. A somewhat stronger shortwave trough will approach the region Saturday. A weak boundary will likely persist across northern Utah and this area of minor convergence will become the focus for high-based convection across northern Utah Saturday afternoon and evening. Again, gusty and erratic microburst winds will be the main threat. A dry cold front associated with previously mentioned trough will cross the region later Saturday into Sunday morning. .LONG TERM (After 12Z Sunday)...Next week continues to show us a pattern of cool, hot, cool, hotter sprinkled in with chances for rain and thunderstorms early in the week. So let`s break this down a little more. A stalled frontal boundary is forecast to sit across Utah early Sunday morning, having passed through northern Utah Saturday. Ever so slightly cooler temperatures are forecast behind this boundary with otherwise similar temperature forecast for the rest of the state Sunday afternoon compared to Saturday. As this boundary stalls, there will remain a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in portions of the state. The difficult part of the forecast here is where these showers are most likely. The latest model runs are honing in on north and eastern Utah. The latest model runs for Monday`s weather system, moreso impacting areas north of us, does hint at a bit more of southward progression. This increases the chance for rain and thunderstorms Monday evening for about the northern third of Utah. What will make this system different is the amount of moisture associated with it. We are looking at PW values in the 180 to 200 percentiles of normal coming in. So, this`ll bear watching of course if this southward progression trend continues. Consistent with this weather system is the passage of another cold front, which looks to pass further south than the Saturday front. A much more noticeable temperature drop will be noted for Tuesday in the wake of this front. The cooler temperatures won`t last long because a strong ridge of high pressure is likely to remain in the forecast for the rest of the week. While temperatures won`t be particularly hot in the north Wednesday; in the south triple digit temperatures remain in the forecast. A 70% chance to exceed 100 degrees still exists across lower Washington County which will only increase headed into Thursday. Northern and central valleys in Utah toward the latter half of the week are forecast into the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION...KSLC...A light wind is forecast early this morning with a slight increase in speeds forecast out of the northwest after 17z. Look for northwest winds and VFR conditions the remainder of the day. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will continue today under the influence of weak high pressure. A very low chance for afternoon thunderstorms (<10%) will exist across central Utah, potentially impacting PVU and HCR. Similar to yesterday, gusty westerly winds are forecast to develop across southwest Wyoming in the afternoon with gusts around 20 to 25 knots. Otherwise, light winds are forecast across Utah today. && .FIRE WEATHER...A series of weak cold fronts will stall the warm up across northern Utah from getting too out of hand...keeping temperatures around 5-10 degrees above normal through at least early next week. These cold fronts will also bring brief reprieves in minimum humidities for northern and central Utah. Expect weak cold fronts later Saturday into Sunday, Monday and yet another weak cold front Tuesday. High-based convection with the attendant threat of microburst winds can be expected across the higher terrain and adjust areas this afternoon and evening, across most of northern Utah Saturday afternoon and evening. The heat really turns up by mid to late week next week as strong high pressure moves overhead the Interior West. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Kruse/NDeSmet For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity