536
FXUS65 KSLC 282150
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
350 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring the return of hot and dry
conditions over the weekend. Increasing winds will bring the
potential for critical fire weather conditions into Monday.
Moisture and instability may return to the area early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...Early Friday afternoon,
broad westerly flow was in place across Utah and SW Wyoming in the
wake of yesterday`s shortwave trough and associated jet, which as
of this writing was exiting eastward across Wyoming and the
Northern Plains. The proximity of the jet remains close enough to
maintain deep-layer shear of 35-45kts across eastern Utah. Low
level moisture remains ample, with dewpoints in the upper 40s to
mid 50s. Deep-layer moisture is much lower than Thursday, however,
with PWATs checking in around 125-175% of normal across eastern
Utah. Given less plentiful moisture and less forcing when compared
to Thursday, convective activity is much less. However, enough
shear and moisture exists to support isolated showers and
thunderstorms. We can`t rule out an isolated strong thunderstorm
through this evening capable of producing gusty winds, hail,
dangerous lightning and briefly heavy rainfall. CAMs suggest the
greatest potential exists across the Uinta Basin and the Swell.

Dry conditions will largely be in place on Saturday, however, just
enough low-level moisture will linger across eastern Utah, mainly
over high terrain areas. Otherwise, the most noticeable change
will be increasing temperatures, as Saturday`s high temperatures
will rise 5F to 10F compared to Friday`s. With deep-layer
southwesterly flow becoming increasingly established as we head
through the day Saturday in advance of an incoming trough, gusty
SW winds will develop in the afternoon, strongest across western
valleys, where gusts will reach the 20-30 mph range.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday), Issued 353 AM MDT...
An approaching PNW trough will increase southwesterly flow aloft.
A well mixed boundary layer during the day on Sunday will
increase surface southwesterlies with widespread gusts 25-35 mph.
High pressure centered over Texas will advect higher moisture into
the southeastern portion of the CWA with drier air encompassing
the remainder of the region. This will pose a fire weather risk
Sunday afternoon. An isolated high based thunderstorm will be
possible across the southeastern portions of the CWA. With
inverted V sounding profiles, any storms that do form will be
capable of producing gusty microburst winds. Temperatures will be
in the mid to upper 90s for most locations with 100-107 across far
southern Utah.

The aforementioned trough will move through Utah on Monday with
increasingly southwesterly flow and low RH once again. A dry cold
front will sweep through northern Utah, dropping high temperatures
~10 degrees compared to Sunday. This cooler air likely won`t make
it too far into central or southern Utah, resulting in little
change in daytime highs. Moisture will stay more elevated across
southeastern Utah so another isolated storm can`t be ruled out as
this trough moves by. A gradual transition to a dry northwesterly
flow aloft will scour out moisture across southeastern Utah and
eliminate almost all chances for precipitation for the remainder
of the period. Cooler air aloft across the northern CWA will keep
temperatures near normal with temperatures running ~5 degrees
warmer than normal across central and southern Utah.

By the end of next week the ensemble members signal a bit of
uncertainty regarding the overall synoptic pattern. 56% of members
have high pressure building off the PNW coast with a continued dry
northwesterly flow that will prevent temperatures from getting too
much above normal. 25% of the members have high pressure building
over the Great Basin that would keep conditions dry with hotter
temperatures. The remaining 19% of members have high pressure
centered to our southeast that could advect moisture into the region
indicative of a monsoon type of pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will continue tonight and tomorrow
with dry weather and generally clear conditions. Northwest winds up
to 10kts this afternoon will pivot to southeast between 3Z and 6Z.
South to southwest winds are expected by mid-morning tomorrow,
likely in the 10 to 15 knot range. There is uncertainty in the
timing of stronger south to southwest winds developing, with a 50%
chance of this change occurring by 15Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered cumulus
over the higher terrain east of US-89, with a few embedded showers
and thunderstorms, will continue through the early evening before
dissipating. Elsewhere, expect generally clear conditions with light
winds. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow with a further
downward trend in cumulus/shower/thunderstorm activity. Stronger
southerly sustained winds of 10-20 knots with gusts to around 25 kts
will develop by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air is continuing to move into Utah from the
north and west this afternoon. However, isolated showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated over far eastern Utah into early
Friday evening. By Saturday, minimum relative humidity values are
expected to drop to or below 15 percent over much of Utah, with
breezy winds anticipated over a large portions of southwest and
west central Utah. Winds will increase even further on Sunday,
with critical fire weather conditions developing across much of
Utah`s lower elevation areas especially where critical fuels,
winds and humidity intersect. Winds will begin to diminish on
Monday, but critical fire weather conditions will persist across
southwest and south-central Utah with more isolated critical fire
weather conditions across eastern valleys. From Tuesday through
Friday, isolated pockets of critical fire weather conditions are
expected, with most areas remaining dry.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for UTZ492.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening
     for UTZ495-497-498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

ADeSmet/Van Cleave

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