Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
475 FXUS65 KSLC 192137 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 337 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A typical early fall pattern will continue across the Beehive State through the next week. An upper level disturbance will bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms to portion of southern and eastern Utah Saturday. A weak cold front will cross northern and central Utah Monday. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Sunday)...A beautiful shoulder season day is on tap across the CWA this afternoon. Afternoon upper air and satellite analysis indicates an upper level low is slowly shifting south off the southern California Coast. Another upper level trough is pulling away from the region across central Canada. Meanwhile, persistent upper level ridging remains in place across the south central portion of the country, currently centered near the Big Bend of Texas. The previously mentioned upper level low north of LA will gradually shift eastward across the Desert Southwest through Sunday. While generally weak across Arizona early Saturday, the upper level low will strengthen and shift northeast across the 4-Corners region into Colorado Saturday afternoon. This period of strengthening will leave a window for showers and thunderstorms...with some potential for strong thunderstorms across southern and eastern Utah Saturday afternoon and evening. Main threat will be strong, gusty microburst winds. This threat will end by late evening as the upper level low pulls away from the region. The track of this low does support at least enhanced easterly flow through the canyons of Weber, Davis, Box Elder and Cache Counties Saturday morning. Gusts to 40 mph are most likely at this time, however, the high-resolution guidance window is just starting to resolve this time period. This is a phenomena that is sufficiently small enough on the mesoscale to need high resolution modeling to properly discern. .LONG TERM (After 12Z Sunday), Issued 358 AM MDT... Beautiful weather is in store for the long-term period, with near-normal temperatures and mostly clear skies. In the wake of a closed low, shortwave ridging will build across the area on Sunday, producing drier conditions and temperatures hovering around normal. Monday will largely be the same, though a passing shortwave trough sliding across northeastern UT/southwestern WY will result in partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a few isolated showers over the Uinta Mountains. There are still a handful of ensemble members that favor a stronger shortwave, which could bring light showers to more of the area, though this chance is fairly low (15% chance). Heading into midweek, a ridge will likely build across the area, raising temperatures to just above normal. Model guidance hints at another developing trough possibly late in the week, but there is still a wide range of potential solutions. && .AVIATION...KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through the evening with mostly clear skies. Northwest winds are expected to shift to the southeast between 03Z and 05Z. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...The airspace will see VFR conditions through the evening with some scattered clouds this afternoon over the higher terrain. Winds will be generally light and terrain driven through the valid TAF period, though southwest Utah will see some breezy southerly winds into the early evening. && .FIRE WEATHER...A more fall-like pattern continues across the region. An upper level low will slowly eject across the Desert Southwest through Sunday, bringing the threat of showers and thunderstorms to mainly southern and eastern Utah Sunday. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near any thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. A weak cold front will cross through northern and central Utah Monday. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Kruse/Cunningham/Traphagan For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity