Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
579 FXUS66 KSTO 240845 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 145 AM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably warm and periodically breezy weather persists across the early week period, with a slight cooling trend to near normal from mid to late week and into the weekend. && Key Points - Decreasing areas of Moderate HeatRisk remain in the Valley today, with decreasing Moderate HeatRisk on Tuesday and primarily Minor HeatRisk Wednesday through Saturday. - Temperatures cool to near normal by the end of the week, with a new warming trend possible late in the weekend. Short-Term Discussion (Today THROUGH Thursday)... Clear skies dominate this early morning period over interior NorCal. Temperatures at midnight were still quite balmy, with the Valley ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s. Still, things should continue to cool off as we move into the early morning, especially in areas closer to the Delta where onshore flow will bring cooler morning conditions. Today, widespread Moderate HeatRisk remains over much of the area, with highs around the mid 90s to low 100s expected in the Valley, and 80s to 90s at higher elevations. Temperatures on Tuesday and through the remainder of the week continue to cool off slightly as broad troughing moves over the west coast. Tuesday afternoon and evening also continue to see some slight chances for isolated thunderstorms along the Sierra crest south of HWY 50 (about 10-25% probability) due to monsoonal moisture advection from the south. Storms during this period could produce gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall, and lightning which could lead to new fire starts before quickly transitioning eastward off the crest. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the week ahead. High temperatures will be around the high 80s to mid 90s in the Valley, and 70s to 80s at higher elevations. Onshore flow will remain throughout the week as well, bringing breezy to occasionally gusty south to west winds late in the day. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)... Friday and Saturday temperatures will remain near normal, though a couple degrees warmer than Thursday as westerly flow develops over the area. Clusters and ensembles seem in good agreement that the general pattern will continue to primarily be westerly flow, with heights increasing late in the weekend and into early next week. This will result in gradually warming temperatures on Sunday and into early next week, though how long after Monday these warmer temperatures will last is still quite uncertain. Overall, Valley temperatures look like they will trend from the upper 80s and low to mid 90s on Friday and Saturday to the high 90s and low 100s by Monday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs. Sfc wind mainly at or below 12 kts except vcnty of Delta SWly sfc wind up to 20 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$