Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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353
FXUS66 KSTO 140951
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
251 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Critical fire weather conditions likely Saturday night through
Monday afternoon across the Sacramento Valley due to gusty
northerly winds and low relative humidity. Seasonable temperatures
and dry conditions continue over the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points
- A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from 11 PM Saturday - 5
  PM Monday across the majority of the Sacramento Valley due to
  low daytime relative humidity, gusty northerly winds, and poor
  overnight recoveries.
- Northerly winds may continue early next week maintaining some
  locally elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday
- Seasonable temperatures the next several days, then gradually
  warming mid to late next week

Short-Term Discussion (Today THROUGH Monday)...
Current GOES-West satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies
across interior northern California early on this Friday morning.
Temperatures are currently trending approximately around 2 to 8
degrees cooler than this time yesterday morning, valid at 230 AM
PDT. Locally breezy onshore flow is being observed with the Delta
Breeze in the Delta and adjacent Valley areas. Seasonable
temperatures are in the forecast over the next several days, with
mainly Minor HeatRisk. High temperatures are projected to be in
the 80s to 90s in the Valley/Delta, 80s to around 90 in the
foothills, and 60s to 80s in the mountains.

Critical fire weather conditions develop in the Sacramento Valley
over the weekend and continue into Monday due to gusty northerly
winds and low relative humidity. The National Blend of Models
(NBM) indicates a 25-50% probability of wind gusts of 40 mph or
greater in the Sacramento Valley, strongest on Sunday. Minimum
relative humidity is expected to be in the 10-20% range, with
overnight recoveries of about 20-45%. This combination of low
relative humidity and gusty northerly winds has warranted a Fire
Weather Watch that remains in effect from Saturday night through
Monday afternoon to address the increasing confidence for these
conditions.

 &&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...
Ensembles and clusters show upper level low gradually weakening
over the Great Basin Region through next week. This will keep
lingering breezy winds over NorCal through Wednesday. Temperatures
gradually warm up next week into the 90`s, but uncertainty in
just how much remains uncertain with a progressively widening
ensemble spreads by late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hours. Southerly
surface winds up to 20 kts in the southern Sacramento Valley, and
northwesterly wind gusts up to 20 kts northern San Joaquin Valley
until 06Z Saturday. Surface winds 15-25 kts vicinity Delta with
gusts up to 30 kts.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday evening through Monday
afternoon for Central Sacramento Valley in Glenn, Colusa, Yuba,
Northern Sutter, and Butte County Below 1000 Ft-Eastern
Mendocino NF-Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama
County Line Below 1000 Ft-Northern Sierra Foothills from 1000 to
3000 Ft. Includes portions of Shasta-Trinity and Butte Units-
Northern Sierra Including Lassen NP and Plumas and Lassen NF/S
West of the Sierra Crest (West of Evans Peak-Grizzly Peak-
Beckworth Peak)-Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western
Portions of Tehama-Glenn Unit-Southern Sacramento Valley in Yolo-
Sacramento Far Western Placer, southern Sutter and Solano County
Below 1000 Ft.

&&

$$