Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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573 FXUS62 KTAE 270526 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 126 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 949 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Updates don`t appear necessary this evening, the forecast looks like it`s on track. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 A quiet day continues across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures in the lower 90s. Thanks to ridging, we`re seeing subsidence across the area, suppressing any shower or storm development this afternoon. However, the abundantly moist environment will contribute to some fog formation over the eastern Big Bend and I-75 corridor of Georgia late tonight into Monday morning where winds become light to calm. Farther to the west, fog formation appears less likely as winds will be a bit elevated ahead of our approaching system. Lows tonight will be very warm in the lower to middle 70s. Memorial Day looks to be a potentially active day, but the caveat is the coverage of storms may not be great. A shortwave passes through the area during the day Monday, though ridging tries to hold on in the eastern parts of our area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in an environment that is support for strong to severe storms. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt, SBCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg, and DCAPE of 800-1100 J/kg thanks to the presence of mid-level dry air will result in a potential for damaging wind gusts, either in the form of individual downbursts or a cold-pool driven multicell cluster(s). In addition to the damaging wind potential, there`s also the potential for large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km and cooling mid-level temperatures as the shortwave approaches. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas from Dothan to Albany northwestward in a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5) with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) to a line from DeFuniak Springs to Moultrie. South of I-10, it may be more difficult for storms to develop given that these areas will be under a bit more influence from the ridge and dry air and are a bit further from the greatest lift. Not everyone will see storms tomorrow, but storms that develop could bring strong winds, frequent lightning, and hail. Given the holiday, many people may be trying to hold outdoor events. Make sure you have ways to receive weather updates, keep an eye to the sky, and remember: "When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!" High temperatures tomorrow will be in the lower to middle 90s. Heat index values of 100-105 are possible south of I-10. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Behind the front on Tuesday, a drier airmass will move into the area with northwest flow. There could still be an isolated seabreeze storm across the southeast big bend, but that would be about it. Of course, late season cold fronts do not really bring much cooler air. High temperatures are still expected to reach the 90s for most areas on Tuesday. The humidity will just be a bit lower. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 There are some differences in the guidance on Wednesday with the 12z GFS bringing another upper level impulse into the area with scattered convection. Meanwhile, the ECMWF remains dry. The differences manifest from how convective clusters in the Plains develop and propagate. Thus, confidence is fairly low. However, the ensemble guidance favors only low PoPs on Wednesday, currently less than 20 percent. Beyond Wednesday, surface high pressure will move from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the coastal Carolinas. This will bring north and northeast breezes at the surface, which will gradually clock around to easterly and southeasterly. These factors favor a mainly dry forecast with PoPs around 20 percent or less. Highs will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows in the mid 60s to near 70. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Clouds are forecast to develop throughout the overnight hours with MVFR to IFR conditions anticipated by 09Z to 10Z and linger into mid-Monday morning. There is also the chance for some fog in and around the TAF sites with the best chance for that happening near KTLH and KVLD where some TEMPO groups were included. The forecast becomes a bit less certain beyond 16Z to 18Z as a cluster of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to be moving through the southeast and nearing our northern TAF sites around that time. As of now, have included some VCTS around the time with greatest confidence. Ceilings are forecast to be VFR for most of the TAF period outside of any showers or storms. Winds will generally be out of the south to southwest through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 A late season cold front will move towards the waters Monday into Monday night. Gentle to moderate westerly breezes will follow the front on Tuesday, followed by a northwest turn on Tuesday night. High pressure will pass by well north of the waters from Wednesday through Friday, causing winds to gradually clock around from northerly to easterly by the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 High mixing heights and increasing southwesterly transport winds will result in high dispersions across southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon, mainly north of I-10. These storms will be capable of producing strong, erratic wind gusts and frequent lightning. Drier air filters in Tuesday and Wednesday behind a cold front. Winds will become more northwesterly and RH will drop into the 30s. Dispersions will still be high across southwest Georgia and the Big Bend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Flood waters from heavy rainfall back on May 17 and 18 are now routing into the slow-responding Suwannee River, which will see rises in the days ahead. All other rivers continue to fall. Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday afternoon, mainly over our Alabama and Georgia basins. Most places will not experience hydrologically significant rainfall, but isolated rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible. This could bring localized short- duration runoff issues. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 72 93 70 93 / 30 10 10 10 Panama City 74 91 73 89 / 20 10 10 10 Dothan 71 91 69 89 / 20 0 0 10 Albany 70 91 68 90 / 30 0 0 10 Valdosta 72 92 69 92 / 40 10 0 10 Cross City 72 92 70 93 / 20 40 10 10 Apalachicola 76 89 74 88 / 20 10 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT early this morning for FLZ112. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Young SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Reese MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...DVD