325
FXUS62 KTAE 070510
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
110 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.
Remaining isolated convection will diminish this evening.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A front moves through the region by Friday with rain chances in
the forecast until passage. Drier weather arrives this weekend,
but conditions will be hot Saturday through Monday. By next week,
the pattern likely turns wetter.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A cold front is forecast to move through the area from the north on
Friday with a few showers and storms possible along and ahead of it.
The best chances for showers and storms is over our Florida zones
and far southern Georgia with gusty winds and heavy rainfall the
primary threats. Despite the front, highs in the afternoon will
still rise into the low to mid 90s with max heat indices in the 95 -
105 degree range. Humidity will decrease in the wake of the front
and help make for a much more pleasant evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The frontal boundary largely responsible for the near-term weather
should be on its way east of the region heading into the weekend.
Drier air filtering in from the north effectively squashes rain
chances on Saturday, but will make for widespread highs in the 90s.
Reduced humidity should keep heat indices from being much different
from the air temperature outside of locations generally south of I-
10. Overnight lows range from upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Sunday is shaping up to be hotter than Saturday as a ridge noses in
from the west. A modest uptick in moisture will also cause humidity
to rebound. The net result is a mid/upper 90s high-temperature
forecast away from the immediate coast with heat indices a few
degrees higher. Tallahassee`s daily record high for June 9th is 100
and it looks like there`s a good chance for that reading to be
challenged. For Monday, ridging maintains its influence across the
region, so expect another hot day characterized by widespread 90s
and heat indices up to the low 100s. Low 70s will be common for
minimum temperatures.

There continues to be signals for a wet/unsettled pattern later next
week thanks to another front dropping down from the north attendant
to a broad Eastern US upper trough and tropical moisture surging
from the south. Evolutionary details remain nebulous at this time,
but the forecast has elevated rain chances, especially the farther
south you go. Given the expected increase in cloud cover and
precipitation, daytime highs get knocked down to the low 90s while
low 70s stick around overnight/early morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Some brief MVFR CIGS/VSBYs look to develop at TLH in the next few
hours; however, confidence is not high. These restrictions were
included in the TAFs for TLH, but might need to be amended if they
do not develop. Outside of these restrictions, VFR conditions look
to prevail the remainder of the TAF period for all terminals. VCTS
was included at TLH and VLD as a trailing frontal boundary may
lead to some isolated thunderstorm development later this
afternoon. Beyond thunderstorms developing, expect clear skies to
take over beyond 00 utc as dry air invades the area.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting SW winds 5-10 kts with 1-3-ft seas
and a dominant period of 6 seconds.

From CWF Synopsis...Generally favorable boating conditions
prevail outside of showers and thunderstorms. Little to no rain is
expected this weekend. West to southwest winds generally 10 knots
or less are forecast. Unsettled weather appears likely mid to
late next week when a front approaches from the north and tropical
moisture arrives from the south.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Scattered showers and storms are expected across the area today and
may produce gusty and erratic winds. Additional showers and storms
will be possible tomorrow mainly across FL and far south GA ahead of
an approaching cold front. This front will usher in a drier air mass
for the weekend. High dispersions are possible each afternoon due to
high mixing heights and relatively breezy transport winds.
Otherwise, there are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

There are minimal flooding concerns outside of potentially localized
runoff issues from strong and/or slow-moving thunderstorms for the
rest of today and tomorrow. Dry weather is expected this weekend,
followed by a likely much wetter patten developing some time next
week into beyond the extended period. In terms of rivers, a few in
the Suwannee basin remain in action stage but are on a downward
trend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   95  71  95  70 /  40  10  10   0
Panama City   90  72  91  74 /  20  10   0   0
Dothan        93  66  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        94  67  92  67 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      94  70  94  69 /  30  10   0   0
Cross City    92  73  95  71 /  30   0  10   0
Apalachicola  88  75  89  75 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ early this
     morning for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...IG3