190
FXUS62 KTAE 031947
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
347 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast
through the work week with potential for stronger storms and
heavier rainfall Thursday-Friday. Drier weather appears likely
this weekend after frontal passage. A return to a more typical
summertime diurnal convective pattern is expected by early next
week. Hot and muggy conditions prevail otherwise.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A fairly summerlike pattern is expected through the near term with
the Bermuda high keeping onshore flow in place over the area. Deep
layer moisture overhead along with fairly weak steering flow will
keep a locally heavy rainfall threat in place Tuesday afternoon.
Forecast soundings also could indicate a gusty wind threat with the
strongest storms. Temperatures are forecast in the upper 60s to low
70s in the morning before climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s in
the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The short-term synoptic pattern is forecast to consist of a narrow
upper ridge over the Eastern Seaboard with an upstream longwave
trough trekking through the Midwest and stout ridge anchored
across the Desert SW. Meanwhile, the Bermuda High will continue to
pump moist south to southwest low-level flow, resulting in
hot/muggy conditions and mainly diurnal convection. Forecast high
temperatures are low 90s away from the coast and lows in the low
70s. For Wednesday, the greatest rain chances focus along the I-75
corridor where the richer moisture resides, but the seabreeze
should provide an additional forcing mechanism for initiation near
the coast.

By Wednesday night, the aforementioned trough`s position around the
Great Lakes places our region under northwest flow aloft, which when
combined with a trailing impulse could send a Mesoscale Convective
System (MCS). The GFS, an often reliable model for MCS`, has one
entering the Wiregrass early Thursday morning. If this solution
verifies, then we may be looking at a severe weather/heavy rain
threat. For now, confidence is not high enough to introduce any
risks, but trends could change in subsequent forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Active weather appears likely on Thursday as the potential MCS,
remnant outflow boundary, and/or associated front pushes through the
service area. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected before
activity shifts closer to the coast and offshore heading into the
weekend. By Saturday, the longwave trough discussed in the short-
term period should be east of the Great Lakes with drier northerly
flow filtering in. This pattern shift should effectively put a lid
on convection. Come next week, we are looking at a return to a more
typical summertime seabreeze pattern.

High temperatures in the 90s will be common while lows drop to the
low 70s. However, this weekend`s inland minimums are likely to read
in the mid/upper 60s (especially north of the FL state line) thanks
to a relatively drier post-frontal airmass presiding over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Scattered showers and storms are expected across the area through
this evening with periods of gusty winds and heavy rainfall
possible. Fog/low stratus will be possible in the early morning
hours with the best chances at the western terminals. Conditions
should improve to VFR again by mid to late morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting a SE wind around 8 kts with 2-ft
seas and a dominant period of 6-7 seconds this afternoon.

From CWF Synopsis...Generally favorable boating conditions
prevail outside of daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.
The best convective potential is Thursday through Friday night.
South to southwest winds at 10 knots or less are forecast, then
turn west late week, and become northwesterly this weekend.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A summertime pattern is expected over the next several days with
daily showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons. Storms could
produce gusty and erratic winds along with isolated heavy rainfall.
Dispersions are forecast to be high Wednesday and Thursday with
fairly high mixing heights and increasing southwesterly to westerly
transport winds. A seabreeze is expected to develop along the coast
and move slowly inland each day. Otherwise, there are no fire
weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

There are no significant flooding concerns over the next several
days. The only exceptions can be locally heavy rain from strong
and/or slow-moving thunderstorms capable of isolated nuisance
flooding in low-lying, urban, or poor drainage areas. In terms of
rivers, a few in the Suwannee basin remain in action stage, but
levels continue to drop.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  90  70  92 /  10  40  10  30
Panama City   73  87  73  87 /  10  30  10  20
Dothan        69  90  69  91 /  20  40  10  30
Albany        69  90  70  91 /  20  40  30  30
Valdosta      69  92  71  93 /  30  40  30  40
Cross City    67  92  69  93 /  20  30  30  30
Apalachicola  74  85  74  86 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ108-112-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IG3
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...IG3