Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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071 FXUS62 KTAE 231849 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 249 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 A couple of showers and thunderstorms remain possible late this afternoon across southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Otherwise, expect temperatures to fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s tonight as any showers/storms dissipate. A bit of fog is possible Friday morning before temperatures climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s around the region in the afternoon. A few showers and storms are possible along the sea breeze Friday afternoon. The H5 ridge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will nudge westward a bit, opening the door for west to northwesterly mid-level flow. Precipitable water values (PWATs) generally between 1.3" to 1.5" should help weaken any thunderstorm complexes that are forecast to move through the southeast over the next 24 hours. That said, there is the potential for an isolated shower or two early Friday morning. The lower PWATs should also keep any showers and thunderstorms isolated in nature Friday afternoon with the best chance across southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Saturday night) Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Mid to upper level ridging centered over central Mexico will continue to impose northwest flow across the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere across the region. Fortunately at this time, most Mesoscale convective Systems that are forecast to propagate eastward along the strong westerly flow of the subtropical jet will remain north of the region across northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia over the long holiday weekend. There is a slightly higher chance on Saturday that an outflow boundary from one of these MCS dives south into SE Alabama and SW Georgia early Saturday morning, and could act as a trigger for afternoon thunderstorm development. Given higher than normal DCAPE values approaching 1000 J/Kg, a few of these storms could produce strong to near severe wind gusts. Overall, outside of these low rain chances, temperatures will be warm Saturday, with highs climbing into the low to mid 90s areawide. Lows Saturday morning will generally remain in the low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Mid and upper level ridging will continue to remain in place across the region through Sunday as ridge centered over north central Mexico nudges slightly further east into the Gulf of Mexico. This will likely lead to the weeks warmest temperatures, with highs climbing into low to mid 90s for most. These temperatures combined with dewpoints near 70 degrees areawide will lead to the highest heat indices of the year thus far. Folks enjoying outside activities during the holiday weekend should prepare accordingly for the heat across the region. A mid and upper level trough looks to dig south into the eastern conus starting Tuesday and Wednesday. This will lead to a late season cold front pushing through the region Tuesday and Wednesday. The east-west orientated quasi-stationary front as it passes the area will lead to increased chances for thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours of Tuesday through Wednesday, with Tuesday afternoon having the best chances areawide. WMSI values look to be the highest on Tuesday as both instability and shear look to be at their highest values across the region. This will likely lead to mutli-cellular clusters developing across the region possibly leading to isolated strong to severe winds. By Wednesday, the front looks to be draped across the Florida Big Bend, which could trigger afternoon thunderstorms across this region, primarily south of I-10 where dewpoints look to remain at their highest. In the wake of the cold front, highs will return into the upper 80s to low 90s areawide, and lows will fall into the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through much of the TAF period. There is the potential for a bit of fog in and around KTLH and KECP Friday morning, which could lead to IFR to LIFR conditions. Winds will generally be light to moderate out of the south to southwest. && .MARINE... Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure east of the Bahamas will continue to impose a southerly to southwesterly winds across all marine zones through the holiday weekend, with winds generally remaining around 5-10 knots. Southwesterly winds could increase to 10-15 knots by Monday as the upper level trough begins to slowly eject into the upper Mississippi valley; however, they will likely remain on the low end of those values. Southwesterly winds look to remain as the cold front pushes into the region Tuesday, but look to transition to northerly by Wednesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the Memorial Day weekend with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Surface winds will generally be out of the south to southwest. Increased surface moisture will push heat indices into the upper 90s to near 100 at times in the middle of the afternoon. Good dispersions are expected over inland districts each afternoon through at least Sunday thanks to a seasonably deep mixed layer and light to moderate transport winds. Isolated pop-up showers and storms are possible over inland areas each afternoon through Sunday. Better shower and thunderstorm chances arrive Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Patchy to areas of fog are possible over much of the region, with the best chance over the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Portions of the Withlacoochee, Ochlockonee, and Choctawhatchee river basins continue to remain in minor flood as they drain from last weeks storms. With the Withlacoochee slowly draining into the Suwanee, we could see some rises reaching minor flooding on portions of the Suwanee in the coming week. Overall, outside of the possible points along the Suwanee reaching flood in the next week, no other river basins are expected to reach flood stage this week. Widespread rainfall totals over the next 7 days will generally remain around 0.5 inches or less, with portions of SE Alabama potentially reaching 1 inch of QPF in the next week. This amount of rainfall is hydrologically insignificant, and will not lead to additional riverine flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 91 72 93 / 0 10 0 20 Panama City 72 84 74 87 / 0 10 10 10 Dothan 69 89 72 91 / 0 20 10 20 Albany 70 89 71 90 / 0 10 10 30 Valdosta 69 91 71 93 / 0 10 10 30 Cross City 68 91 69 90 / 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 73 84 74 86 / 0 10 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Reese SHORT TERM...Bunker LONG TERM....Bunker AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Bunker FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...Bunker