816
FXUS62 KTAE 211631
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1231 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Only small changes were made to the PoP grids for this afternoon,
as there is a slight signal that some isolated showers and
thunderstorms could develop along a surging Atlantic Seabreeze.
Outside of these slight PoP increases along the SE Big Bend and
I-75 corridor, there were no other changes made today.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

High pressure centered northeast of the area will maintain light
easterly winds across the region today with winds along the coast
turning onshore with a sea breeze passage later this afternoon.
There is a small chance of a stray shower across the southeast big
bend, but PoPs are less than 20 percent. Highs will generally be in
the 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Quiet and warm conditions are expected through the middle of the
week with upper level ridging in solid control of the sensible
weather. The only notable change in the weather over this period
will be surface high pressure shifting into the Atlantic with
light easterly flow becoming southerly through the period. No rain
is expected with high temperatures climbing into the low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Largely more of the same can be expected in the long term period
beginning at the end of the week, but the upper level ridge will
begin to break down as several systems pass by from west to east
well north of us over the weekend. With southerly flow all week,
its possible enough moisture will be in place to help us see a few
isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm over the weekend but
any coverage will be very isolated and POPs remain at 25% or less
with the highest coverages across inland areas. With no rain
temperatures will remain warm and it`s possible some spots hit
the mid 90s over the weekend or early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions look remain through today and tonight, with LIFR
conditions developing at VLD overnight. Some possible MVFR VSBYs
look to develop at ECP towards the early morning hours; however,
there is more uncertainty in these restrictions developing, and
they could be removed in subsequent TAF updates. Overall, VFR
conditions look to remain at all other terminals through the
period, with clear skies developing overnight, and becoming
scattered through mid day tomorrow. Winds look to remain calm or
out of the southeast at around 5 knots or less through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Light easterly flow regime expected through late Wednesday before
winds become light and southerly by the end of the upcoming week.
Winds will be 10 knots of less except for occasional nocturnal
easterly surges in the wind tonight and again on Wednesday night.
Seas will be around 2 feet through the week, possibly decreasing
by the late week period as light winds move in. No rain or
thunderstorms expected through at least the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

The 20 foot winds will remain on the light side with relative
humidity values remaining above critical levels for the next few
days. Given recent rainfall, there are no major fire weather
concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Heavy rainfall from the weekend still is working through the river
system. Ochlockonee River at Thomasville has crested and further
downstream into Florida the river will crest through the middle of
this week with decreases below flood by late this week. Rises on
the lower Withlacoochee below Valdosta likely with it cresting at
Quitman on Wednesday or Thursday. Further downstream into the
upper Suwanee basin slow rises into action stage and near minor
flood stage are likely by later this week and into next week as
water moves downstream.

Further west across the Panhandle most have rivers have crested or
will only see non-significant rises into action stage through the
next few days.

No significant rain is expected in the next 7 to 10 days so expect
additional decreases on rivers once water moves its way through
the system this week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   68  90  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   69  86  70  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        66  88  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        65  88  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      66  90  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    67  91  67  91 /  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  71  82  72  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CDT this evening for FLZ108-
     112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs