898
FXUS62 KTAE 180531
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
131 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The upper level high will build over the U.S. Mid Atlantic
region, while surface high pressure holds just to the northeast.
This will allow dry air to be ushered into the region, which
combined with low pressure over the southwest, will lead to a
tightening pressure gradient. This will lead to unseasonably
strong easterly winds. The weather pattern set up should suppress
shower and thunderstorm through the rest of today and into
tomorrow, though there could be a few isolated showers or
thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

An upper level ridge of high pressure to our northeast will begin
to transition to an east-west orientation during the short term.
There is also an area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf
near the Bay of Campeche that will be moving west/northwestward
towards Mexico or the Gulf coast of Texas. Our proximity between
the low and high pressure system will lead to a tightening
pressure gradient that will increase our winds over both the
marine zones and inland regions with moderate breezes of about 15
mph gusting up to 25 mph. There will be a slight chance (about
30%) for PoPs on Wednesday. Although the environment is expected
to be dry, there may be just enough moisture to squeeze out a
shower or thunderstorm over the Southeast Big Bend region if we
can get enough moisture convergence.

The high pressure to our northeast will gradually bring in drier
air and afternoon temperatures will be in the low to mid-90s.
Morning lows will be in the low to mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The upper level ridge begins to weaken on Thursday, which will
allow for moisture to move back into the region. This will
gradually increase our precip chances heading into the weekend.
The moisture will arrive from a tropical wave in the Atlantic that
has a 30% chance for development over the next 7 days. Whatever
does end up happening, the main result will be gradually
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late this week
into the weekend. PoPs for the long term range from 20% on
Thursday to about 50-60% by Sunday. As of now, it appears that
most of the precipitation will be confined to the Eastern Big Bend
and over the marine zones.

Temperatures for the long term will have afternoon highs in the
mid to upper 90s, and have heat indices around 100 degrees.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid-70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The main concern this morning will be some stratus as noted on
satellite moving inland from the east coast of FL and Low-Level
Wind Shear (LLWS) where surface winds become light given VAD
Wind Profiles indicating 30 kts of easterly wind around 1.5k ft.
Have indicated SCT cigs from 1.5-3k ft at all terminals but ABY
this morning, which could briefly become BKN leading to MVFR;
have high confidence in SCT cigs but low confidence in MVFR.
Winds at VLD have are near calm, so have inserted LLWS in the
TAF until 14-15z. East winds become gusty again all terminals
from late morning/early afternoon Tuesday to around 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

It will be a disappointing week to be out on the waters with
hazardous boating conditions expected. High pressure to the
northeast and low pressure to the southwest will create a tight
pressure gradient that will produce unseasonably strong easterly
winds. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect through mid-week.
Wave heights of at least 3 feet, and increasing up to 9 feet
through the week, and sustained winds up to 25kts and gusting up
to 30kts. It is possible for a brief period of Gale force wind
gusts during the overnight hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds and
seas will be on a downward trend as we head into the weekend;
however, exercise caution conditions may linger into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Our weather will generally be dominated by high pressure over the
next few days; however, the pressure gradient over us will
tighten due to low pressure over the Bay of Campeche developing.
This will lead to unseasonably strong breezes through the week,
deep mixing, and high dispersions through at least Thursday.
Mainly dry weather should supress shower and thunderstorms each
afternoon, though a few rogue showers or storms could pop up. The
pattern may change to a wetter one late in the week, but
confidence is low on timing for this.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Dry conditions are expected over the next several days as a ridge
of high pressure will influence our weather. It is possible for a
few isolated showers/thunderstorms to develop, but these will not
produce any flooding concerns. Rain chances gradually increase as
we head towards the weekend as a disturbance in the Atlantic
approaches the Southeast U.S. coast. It is possible that we could
see an increased risk for flooding due to the potential for heavy
rainfall this weekend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  74  93  73 /  10   0  10   0
Panama City   92  76  93  75 /  10  10  10  10
Dothan        90  72  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        92  71  90  70 /  10   0  10  10
Valdosta      92  71  92  71 /  10   0  10   0
Cross City    93  71  94  72 /  10   0  20  10
Apalachicola  88  78  89  77 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ Thursday for
     GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery