411
FXUS62 KTBW 201833
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
233 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A highly amplified upper level pattern continues over the CONUS.
This synoptic pattern shows upper troughing and a surface low
pressure system sitting off the New England states. The associated
surface troughing and frontal boundary extends southward through the
western Atlantic to the Bahamas. Farther to the west, upper ridging
and surface high pressure extends northeastward from Texas to the
Ohio River Valley. This upper ridging and surface high pressure to
the north will remain the dominant weather features over the weekend
and into next week. Looking at the water vapor imagery, there is
some drier air that has filtered into the area. This drier air will
remain over Florida through the weekend and into next week with
lower rain chances of around 30-50 percent expected each day.
Seasonal temps are expected with daytime highs topping out in the
low 90`s with heat indices reaching 100-103 degrees.

There has been no significant changes in the tropics over the past
24 hours. There continues to be 3 areas of interest that the
National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on. 2 of these areas are
in the central Atlantic and have a 10 percent chance of development
over the next 7 days. The other area that models are hinting at
development will be in the northwest Caribbean and has a 50 percent
chance of development over the next 7 days. None of these systems
pose an immediate threat to Florida, but the one in the Caribbean
will be closely monitored over the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions with no weather restrictions expected through the
period. Winds will remain less than 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

High pressure will build in from the north over the coming days. This
will produce a northeast through easterly wind flow over the
weekend, but remaining 15 knots of less. With high pressure building
into the area, some drier air will filter into the region resulting
in lower rain chances over the weekend and into next week. No
headlines are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

High pressure builds into the area over the weekend. Drier air is
anticipated today as a northeasterly wind flow sets up. This drier
air should limit shower and storm activity in most locations with
the highest chances over the interior and SW FL. Humidity values
remain above critical levels with no fire weather concerns
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  91  74  92 /  10  10   0  10
FMY  74  92  75  92 /  20  20  10  20
GIF  72  91  73  91 /  10  20   0  30
SRQ  74  92  74  92 /  20  10  10  10
BKV  70  91  70  92 /  10  20   0  20
SPG  78  91  78  92 /  20  10  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard