358
FXUS62 KTBW 261850
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
250 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Hot and dry conditions will persist through Monday as high
pressure well out in the Atlantic Ocean continues to dominate.
Monday night into Tuesday a weakening cool front will approach
from the north and washout over the region. A few showers and
storms could move into the northern waters and northern Nature
Coast late Monday night with some more convection developing
further south as the boundary drifts into the region Tuesday
morning. However, the west to northwest flow will continue ahead
of the boundary so that the highest rain chances will be over the
interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula during the
afternoon and evening hours. By Wednesday the front will have
washed out with a more east to southeast flow across the peninsula
and with leftover moisture still across the area we should see
scattered afternoon and evening convection develop. For Thursday
and Friday it looks like a repeat of Tuesday and Wednesday as
another weakening front approaches and moves into the area with a
chance of more mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms both days. Next weekend an area of high pressure is
expected to build in from the northeast with east to northeast
flow returning and with enough moisture we should continue to see
a chance of afternoon and evening convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail with westerly winds increasing to 10
to 13 knots this afternoon. Winds will diminishing and becoming
light and variable later this evening then southwest to west winds
Monday morning will increase to around 10 knots by midday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Dry high pressure will remain in place over the waters through
Monday then a weakening cool front settles across the area for
Tuesday through the end of the period. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day beginning Tuesday. No
headlines are expected through the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

High pressure will dominate through Monday keeping hot and dry
weather across the region. Some inland areas will see an hour or
two of critical levels in the afternoon, but winds will remain
below 15 mph, with no Red Flag conditions are anticipated. A
weakening cool front will drift into the area Tuesday bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  93  78  92 /   0   0  10  20
FMY  74  95  76  95 /   0  10  10  30
GIF  72  97  74  96 /   0  10   0  40
SRQ  74  92  77  93 /   0   0  10  20
BKV  67  95  71  93 /   0   0  10  30
SPG  79  91  81  90 /   0   0  10  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

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