968
FXUS62 KTBW 301855
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
255 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

A weak cold front is expected to sit over the area today and
tomorrow. This will help to bring shower chances back into the
forecast. For today the main focus will be southwest Florida with
the rest of the area saying dry. We have already set heat records
for many sites across the area. For tomorrow we will see more of an
easterly breeze that should keep the west coast seabreeze closer to
our coast. This along with the weak front bringing some extra
moisture should allow some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the area.

This front will finish pushing through late Friday. This will once
again bring drier air for the weekend and keep rain showers out of
the forecast for everyone expect those in Southwest Florida. Once
again we will be talking about near to record breaking temperatures
through the weekend.

The record heat will continue for next week. We will see a small
increase in moisture which should bring isolated thunderstorm
chances each afternoon but will remain on the lower end.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with winds mainly out
of the Northwest. Scattered showers and storms will be possible
for our southern terminal between 20z-01z today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Winds will generally stay below 10 knots throughout the
rest of the week as a weak cold front is draped across the area.
Some isolated showers and storms will be possible both days. As we
go throughout the weekend the frontal system will pass resulting in
winds increasing out of the east between 15 to 20 knots. Winds
should start to calm down and shift more out of the south starting
early next week.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

We will continue to see drier conditions each afternoon
across the area with pockets of critical RHs each day. However winds
will remain light resulting in no need for Red Flag Warnings.
Isolated shower activity will be possible the next two days before
drying out once again for the weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  76  94  75 /  20  10  40  10
FMY  95  74  95  73 /  50  40  60  20
GIF  96  72  94  71 /  30  10  40  10
SRQ  95  73  95  73 /  20  10  40  20
BKV  95  67  94  67 /  10  10  30  10
SPG  94  79  93  78 /  10  10  40  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce