793
FXUS62 KTBW 121405
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1005 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues across SWFL this morning
as tropical moisture streams across the peninsula. The 12Z sounding
came in with a PW value of 1.97, which is in the top 10%
climatologically for the day. The only reason it is not higher is
the fact that some dry air has wrapped into the area, at least
temporarily limiting convection. Looking at RSW AMDAR soundings, the
PW value is over 2.6 inches, which is substantially higher. As such,
the expectation is for continued convection through the day across
SWFL, with rounds of storms likely developing again in the next few
hours around the Tampa Bay Area.

With so much rainfall continuing, the main concern continues to be
flooding. The atmosphere is extremely warm (around -4C at 500mb)
and there is no significant shear that would yield any additional
risks (beyond  of the multicellular clusters currently ongoing).
A Flood Watch remains in effect for several counties across West
Central and Southwest Florida where the highest threat exists.

Overall, the forecast remains on track. The only notable adjustment
this morning was to add a Rip Current Statement to reflect the high
risk of rip currents being created by an onshore flow and swells
greater than 2 feet. Otherwise, expecting the rain to continue for
the next couple days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Numerous to widespread showers on radar early this morning,
mainly from the Tampa area southward. At the surface, there is an
area of low pressure centered across Pinellas county. It is
evident on radar and satellite imagery with bands of precipitation
wrapping around this low. Lightning activity has decreased a good
bit throughout the overnight hours with this activity and expect
just a few rumbles of thunder will be possible throughout the
remainder of the early morning hours.

Rainfall amounts over the last 24 hours or so have been rather
substantial in some areas. A station is Siesta Key has reported
near a foot of rain with many locations over 5 inches. The
observations line up fairly well with MRMS 24 hour rainfall
estimates. The higher rainfall amounts have been across Sarasota,
Manatee, Hardee, DeSoto, Charlotte, and Lee counties.
Unfortunately, the latest CAM guidance suggests another round of
heavy rainfall today across southwest Florida. PW values will
remain in the 2.1-2.3 inch range, near the maximum climatological
values for mid June. Additionally, the jet streak will persist
across the northern Gulf of Mexico with the forecast area in the
favored region for divergence aloft. There continues to the signal
for another round of rainfall near 8-12 inches across southwest
Florida over the next 24 hours. The antecedent conditions have
changed drastically for these areas over the last 24 hours. Due to
these numerous factors, went ahead and extended the Flood Watch
northwards to include all of the counties mentioned earlier.
Expect the majority of the heavier rainfall will be to the south
of the I-4 corridor with much lighter amounts to the north along
the Nature Coast. Temperatures will once again be on the cooler
side with the persistent precipitation and cloud cover. Highs
today will range from the mid to upper 80s for most locations.

The upper level trough will pivot across the area on Thursday and
Friday. PW values remain well above 2 inches. Models depict
numerous to widespread showers and storms during this timeframe as
well. The Flood Watch currently goes through Thursday evening but
may need to be extended into the day on Friday if current model
trends continue. Highs during this period will once again be on
the cooler side with highs in the low to mid 80s. The focus for
precipitation continues to be from I-4 southward with lower
amounts to the north.

Models depict ridging returning aloft early next week. This will
lead to rising temperatures with highs returning to the low 90s.
Rain chances will be more associated with the daily seabreeze
activity. A couple of model solutions even want to push a front
slightly through the area with dewpoints down into the 60s early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A low pressure disturbance remains over the region, with impacts
expected at all terminals today. The highest impacts remain for SWFL
sites where little reprieve is expected for the next 24 hours.
Realistically, this pattern is likely to continue all the way
through tomorrow and into Friday, with MVFR to potentially IFR CIGs
and VISBYs and gusty winds at times in passing storms. It`s too
messy to TEMPO, so have opted for generally more pessimistic
forecasts through the period to account for the most prevalent
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Tropical moisture will continue to lift north over the region, with
southwest to south winds continuing. Multiple rounds of showers with
embedded thunderstorms are expected through the end of the week,
with winds and seas higher near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Numerous to widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms will
continue through the next several days as deep tropical moisture
continues over the region. No fire weather concerns are anticipated
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  78  86  78 /  90  80  90  80
FMY  86  76  84  76 / 100  90 100  90
GIF  88  75  86  76 /  90  80  90  70
SRQ  87  76  86  76 /  90  90 100  90
BKV  89  72  87  71 /  90  60  90  70
SPG  86  80  86  80 / 100  80 100  90

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Anderson