204
FXUS62 KTBW 250802
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
402 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

High pressure ridges across the area at the surface and aloft
through the extended weekend. A little upper energy is expected to
move over the state later today and enhance the chances for late
afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland. The rest of the
weekend an isolated late afternoon/evening storm will be possible
inland, but conditions will mostly be hot. Highs are expected in
the lower 90s near the coast to the mid to pockets of upper 90s
inland. Be sure to continue practicing heat safety measures like
ensuring you remain hydrated, try to stay out of the afternoon
sun, wear light colored clothing and sunscreen, etc.

Tuesday and Wednesday a weak front will move across the area and
allow for some scattered showers and storms, with highest chances
in the afternoon each day. The GFS is keeping the upper energy
lingering across the area with scattered storms again possible
into Thursday and Friday afternoons before drier air filters in.
Temperatures will remain warm with this, with low to mid 90s in
the afternoon and lows in the upper 60s north to the mid to upper
70s coastal central and south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Light winds in place this morning will increase from the W through
the late morning and continue to increase through the afternoon to
10-13 knots and some gusts up to 20 kts. Winds become light again
after 02z. VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

High pressure will remain in place across the waters with the
ridge axis shifting south of the area for the extended weekend and
putting much of the waters in a more westerly flow. A weak front
will move through the area then for Tuesday and Wednesday, with a
few showers and storms possible with it. No headlines are expected
through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

High pressure ridging across the area through the extended weekend
will keep conditions mostly dry conditions, except this afternoon
with some scattered storms possible inland this afternoon with
some upper energy moving over the area. Relative humidity
generally remains above critical levels, but some locations inland
may have an hour or two of critical levels in the early afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  75  91  76 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  94  74  93  74 /  10  10  10   0
GIF  95  73  97  73 /  30  10  10   0
SRQ  91  73  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  94  67  94  67 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  90  78  90  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming