565
FXUS62 KTBW 172334
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
734 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...


.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through most of the period across
terminals. However, there is a non-zero chance for MFVR ceilings
that could develop during the early morning hours due to the
potential for patchy fog. If this materializes, it should
dissipate after sunrise. Southerly winds are expected to gradually
become breezy into the afternoon hours and shifting from the
southwest. Wind speeds decrease towards the end of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weakened MCS responsible for some early storms continues to
shift eastward away from the region this afternoon as a frontal
boundary remains draped across the central peninsula. With low-
level southwest winds in place, expect any remaining rainfall to
generally shift inland through the rest of the day, though overall
chances are low. The boundary continues to lift northward tonight
into Saturday, with southwest winds continuing ahead of another
front moving into the southeast. With this setup in place, we can
expect more showers and storms for Saturday afternoon, with the
best chances north and then inland. By Saturday night into Sunday,
the front will move over the peninsula, with higher rain chances
through the day. The boundary lingers over south Florida for
Monday, keeping a chance for some showers and storms in the
forecast, but then high pressure builds in and keeps rain chances
lower through the rest of the week.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  79  92  78 /  10   0  20  50
FMY  92  78  94  78 /  10   0  10  30
GIF  94  75  96  75 /  20  10  30  40
SRQ  91  77  93  76 /  10   0  10  40
BKV  92  72  93  72 /  20   0  30  50
SPG  89  81  89  79 /  10   0  20  50

&&


For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Delerme/Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis