679
FXUS62 KTBW 311417
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1017 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Another sunny and hot day is underway across the area. Today looks
similiar to yesterday with the highest moisture and best chance of
rain being in Southwest Florida with some isolated shower possible
everywhere else.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Just another morning in paradise with temperatures near 70
degrees area-wide. Meanwhile, a stationary frontal boundary
associated a system pushing off the coast northeastern coast
should finally exit the area later today. Before it does, it could
support periods of showers and storms thins afternoon as the sea
breeze moves inland. Unfortunately, most of the area will likely
stay dry as moisture will be limited and mostly available along/south
of the I-4 corridor. Afternoon temperatures today should be
similar to yesterday in the mid to upper 90s, but areas that
receive rain will get some relief from the heat. Though conditions
should be dry enough to keep any advisories from being needed,
residents/visitors should stay hydrated and take breaks if
outdoors. In addition, east to southeasterly winds prevail and
become breezy during the evening.

As this system exits the area, the high pressure begins to
build along the East Coast keeping very hot and dry conditions in
place through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUN-THU)...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Going into early next week, the aforementioned ridge stays in
place before an upper level disturbance weakens it by mid-week.
This allows winds to shift from the south and moisture to return
to the area. Also, this could increase rain chances and
potentially bring afternoon highs down a few degrees. This is our
hope anyways..

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with winds generally
staying below 10 knots. Thunderstorms will be possible in the late
afternoon and evening hours at our southern terminals. The rest of
our sites also have a chance to see a storm but right now chances
are on the lower end so kept it out of the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 404 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

High pressure building along the Eastern Seaboard will tighten
pressure gradient bringing breezy easterly winds between 15 to 20
knots through the weekend. Small craft should exercise caution
during this time. Boating conditions should improve early next
week as high pressure weakens and a disturbance approaches the
Gulf waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

High pressure building over the area should keep hot temperatures and
mostly dry conditions in place through the period. Minimum humidities
are expected to be near or at critical values through the weekend
and into early next week. East to southeasterly winds prevail with
the occasional gusts between 15 to 20 mph this afternoon and Saturday.
The sea breeze and potential for showers and storms this afternoon should
keep the humidities from lining up with the breezy times, so only
elevated conditions are anticipated at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  73  94  73 /  30  20  20  10
FMY  94  71  94  73 /  40  20  40  20
GIF  95  70  91  69 /  20  10  10   0
SRQ  95  71  97  72 /  30  30  20  20
BKV  95  66  95  65 /  20  10  10  10
SPG  94  76  94  77 /  30  30  20  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis