080
FXUS62 KTBW 301402
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1002 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Another hot day is expected across the area. We are expecting some
increase in moisture today mainly in Southwest Florida which will
give us our best chance to see some seabreeze thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

The upper level trough over eastern Canada will continue to dig into
eastern seaboard today through the start of the weekend as a
shortwave trough digs into the Mid Atlantic coast. At the surface,
broad ridging centered over the Great Lakes will spread east across
the eastern US today and Friday and into the Atlantic during the
weekend. Closer to home, a weak disturbance will cross the Florida
Peninsula today to the south of the upper level trough, increasing
moisture slightly and allowing a bit more rain coverage than
yesterday, with the highest rain chances still generally expected
over southwest Florida and the interior portions of central Florida.
As the trough deepens on Friday, a weak cold front will slowly push
south across the Florida Peninsula, allowing the deep moisture to
advance farther north, with scattered showers and storms expected
across most of the forecast area. Temperatures will remain hot
through Friday, approaching 100 over parts of the interior each
afternoon.

Temperatures will moderate slightly behind the front this weekend,
with temperatures dropping down to near to slightly above normal.
Drier air will also limit rain chances, although a few isolated
showers or storms may still pop up each afternoon.

By early next week, the surface ridge over the Atlantic will extend
across northern Florida, with southeast to east low level flow
allowing moisture and temperatures to creep higher again.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible each
afternoon during the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 950 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with winds mainly out
of the Northwest. Scattered showers and storms will be possible
for our southern terminal between 17z-00z today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

High pressure will build back into the waters from the north today
and Friday, then shift east into the Atlantic this weekend. Rain
chances will increase Friday through the weekend as the front pushes
south through the waters. Nocturnal easterly surges will bring winds
up to near exercise caution levels Friday night and Saturday night.
Otherwise, winds and seas will generally remain less than headline
criteria outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

A dry airmass will hold over the area today, with relative humidity
dropping to critically low levels across much of the area during the
afternoon. However, 20 foot wind speeds are not forecast to be fast
enough to cause Red Flag conditions. Humidity increases slightly on
Friday, although isolated areas may still briefly drop below 30
percent in the afternoon. High dispersion indices are expected each
of the next couple of afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  95  76  94  74 /  20  10  40  10
FMY  95  74  95  73 /  50  30  60  20
GIF  96  72  94  71 /  30  10  50  10
SRQ  95  73  93  73 /  20  10  50  20
BKV  96  67  95  67 /  10  10  40  10
SPG  94  79  92  78 /  20  10  40  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce