763
FXUS62 KTBW 271240
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
840 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Dry high pressure will hold across the region today with southwest
to west flow in place. Moisture remains limited with morning TBW
sounding only indicating precipitable water around 1.1 inches
again so the chance of seeing a shower or storm will remain near
zero. The southwest to west winds will keep coastal areas slightly
cooler in the upper 80s to around 90, while inland locations will
once again climb into the middle and upper 90s with a couple of
record highs possible. Forecast looks good with no adjustments
needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 840 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected through early tonight, then some areas
of MVFR ceilings could develop across the Tampa Bay area ahead of
a weakening cool front. Light winds will become southwest to west
and increase to 10 to 13 knots this afternoon, then diminish to
around 5 knots later this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Broad high pressure aloft is continuing to ridge from the Gulf of
Mexico across the Florida Peninsula today as surface high
pressure ridges from the Atlantic across the southern Florida
Peninsula. This stacked ridging will keep warm and dry conditions
in place, with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s
over the interior, and low to mid 90s along the coast. Apart from
the heat, the only weather concern will be for some patchy fog
this morning, mainly over the Nature Coast counties.

On Tuesday, a shortwave trough will dig into the southeastern US,
sweeping a surface front into northern Florida and stalling out.
Building moisture to the south of this boundary will bring chances
of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, although temperatures
will remain above normal through the week. Another shortwave will
rotate through the eastern US on Friday, deepening the longwave
trough and finally giving the stalled frontal boundary enough
momentum to push south into the Florida Peninsula by Friday
evening. This will bump up rain chances again on Friday and drop
temperatures slightly for the weekend...although temperatures will
still run near to slightly above normal, with highs in the upper
80s to mid 90s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

High pressure will hold across the waters today and tonight, then
shift east on Tuesday as a weak front approaches the northern Gulf
of Mexico. This front will bring chances of rain Tuesday, but
gradient winds are forecast to remain less than 15 knots outside of
thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will then build in for the rest of
the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Relative humidity will briefly drop to around or just below 35
percent this afternoon in some spots, mainly over the interior.
However, wind speeds will not be high enough to cause Red Flag
conditions. Humidity will increase slightly on Tuesday. High
dispersion indices are expected this afternoon and again Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  79  92  78 /   0  10  30  10
FMY  95  77  95  76 /   0  10  30  20
GIF  97  74  96  74 /   0   0  40  10
SRQ  92  78  92  77 /   0   0  20  10
BKV  94  72  93  70 /   0  10  40  10
SPG  91  81  90  80 /   0  10  20  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Fleming
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley