327
FXUS62 KTBW 041127
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
727 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions for all terminals this morning. Light easterly winds
will turn westerly with the sea breeze around mid day. Rain chances
are slightly lower today with most of the activity inland and across
southern locations later this afternoon and into the evening hours.
Winds will diminish and turn easterly overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...
Issued at 426 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Most of the activity has dissipated with only a shower or two
lingering several miles offshore. As you walk out the door this
morning it should feel a tad drier compared to yesterday with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. The main culprit is the ridge
of high pressure northeast of the area that should be in place
through Wednesday. Dry air circulating around it has been and
will continue to be ingested across the Peninsula today. This
will limit how much convection develops this afternoon. Very light
east to southeasterly flow should keep showers and thunderstorms
developing along the west coast, mostly south of the I-4 corridor.
Showers should move offshore and gradually dissipate during the
evening/overnight hours.

Afternoon highs climb up into the mid to upper 90s through the
period. The ridge begins to move south on Wednesday allowing
winds and moisture to slightly increasing.

&&

.LONG TERM (THU-MON)...
Issued at 426 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

During the second half of the week, an upper level trough
approaches the region while high pressure builds south of the area.
This should shift winds from the west and this set up supports
most of the convection over interior areas and east of the CWA
into next week. Additionally, very muggy conditions are possible
Thursday and Friday as dewpoints stay in the 70s, which doesn`t
feel great. Model guidance continues to hint at a weak boundary
moving over the state on Saturday. This should bring drier air
behind it but doesn`t seem to help cool temperatures. Temperatures
remain in the mid to upper 90s through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  77  94  78 /  40  40  60  30
FMY  94  75  94  76 /  50  70  70  40
GIF  95  73  96  75 /  40  30  70  20
SRQ  94  76  94  77 /  40  40  60  30
BKV  95  69  95  71 /  40  30  60  20
SPG  92  79  92  81 /  40  40  60  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION..ADavis
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery