641
FXUS62 KTBW 261148
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
748 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms. Light westerly
winds around 5-10 knots will persist through the period. Will hold
VCTS to cover thunderstorms today through 18Z for PIE/TPA/SRQ and
21Z for LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW. Storms that do develop will be slow
moving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

With high pressure ridging to the south of the state and a stalled
cold front to the north, light westerly flow remains across the
area. The pattern will continue today of morning showers
developing over the coastal waters and drifting in along the
coast, then more scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing in
the afternoon across the area and the focus shifting inland
through the later afternoon and evening hours before gradually
dissipating around midnight. Highs this afternoon will continue in
the lower to mid 90s. The ridge axis lifts a little north to
across south Florida as an upper trough washes out along the
north Florida border through the end of the week, allowing the
W/SW flow to strengthen a bit. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms will continue to be possible with the morning coastal and
shifting inland in the afternoon set up. Highs remain in the lower
to mid 90s with lows in the mid to upper 70s. For the weekend and
into early next week, the ridge axis will be in place across the
area, keeping light winds and the diurnal sea breeze dominant.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to be possible
each day, with more focus over land areas through the afternoon
and evening. Highs remain generally lower to mid 90s and lows in
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

West to southwest flow will be in place through the end of the
week with scattered to numerous thunderstorms possible each day,
mainly in the overnight and early morning. The high pressure ridge
axis then lifts across the waters for the weekend and into next
week, which will keep a light flow turning onshore each afternoon
and evening. Scattered to numerous storms will continue to be
possible, but timing will be more in the evening as storms push
offshore. No headlines are expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  79  90  80 /  50  40  50  20
FMY  90  77  90  77 /  50  40  50  10
GIF  93  76  93  76 /  60  40  60  10
SRQ  91  79  90  78 /  50  40  50  20
BKV  93  75  91  75 /  50  30  50  20
SPG  89  81  88  81 /  50  40  50  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...ADavis