805
FXUS62 KTBW 101252
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
852 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 852 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in place
near the coast and over the coastal waters from southern Tampa Bay
area/Manatee County south this morning. Generally SW flow in place
today, and have those rain chances shifting inland through the
day, with low chances across the Nature Coast. Moisture will be
lifting north from the Caribbean overnight and Tuesday, with some
showers starting overnight and the more widespread rainfall
beginning Tuesday and continuing through the week. Current
forecast is on track and have no updates planned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 852 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

SW flow generally in place today, becoming more southerly after
02Z. Some morning showers and isolated storms near the coastal
terminals this morning, and some afternoon storms possible mainly
inland and south. VFR conditions will prevail, but MVFR to IFR is
possible in/near storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 852 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Some morning showers and isolated storms in place across the
central and southern waters. This activity should diminish in the
afternoon as W/SW flow shifts things inland. Deep tropical
moisture will then move over the area overnight and Tuesday with
winds shifting more southerly, and then linger across the state
through the rest of the week. This will allow for periods of rain,
with some occasional embedded thunderstorms. No headlines are
expected, but some gusty conditions are possible near storms.
Current forecast is on track with this and have no major changes
for the update.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  88  79 /  40  70  90  70
FMY  93  78  86  78 /  70  70  90  90
GIF  96  76  88  75 /  60  60  90  70
SRQ  93  77  88  77 /  50  70  90  80
BKV  94  72  91  72 /  30  60  80  60
SPG  92  81  88  81 /  50  70  90  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana