757
FXUS62 KTBW 100530
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
130 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

There are just a couple isolated showers left in extreme eastern
portions of Polk and Highlands Counties as activity winds down
across the entire state. Early data from the 0Z sounding shows that
the pronounced dry layer remains starting around 700mb and
continues to be the main barrier for convective development. No
surprise with the ridge axis remaining overhead.

The main adjustment for this evening has been to lower POPs for
tomorrow. This dry air has proven to be very persistent and a
significant barrier to convective development. Tomorrow should be
the final day where this is significant. As the moisture deepens
Tuesday, that barrier will erode.

Aside from some adjustments to the POPs, no major changes have been
made. The forecast remains on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions currently across the terminals. Winds are generally
light and variable overnight but will become westerly to
southwesterly later this morning. A few showers/storms may form
across the southern terminals later this afternoon and evening but
confidence is too low to mention VCTS or TS in the terminals at
this time. Went with VCSH for now at PGD, FMY, and RSW after 16z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  88  79 /  40  70  90  70
FMY  93  78  86  78 /  70  70  90  90
GIF  96  76  88  75 /  60  60  90  70
SRQ  93  77  88  77 /  50  70  90  80
BKV  94  72  91  72 /  30  60  80  60
SPG  92  81  88  81 /  50  70  90  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley