Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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757 FXUS62 KTBW 100530 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 130 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 There are just a couple isolated showers left in extreme eastern portions of Polk and Highlands Counties as activity winds down across the entire state. Early data from the 0Z sounding shows that the pronounced dry layer remains starting around 700mb and continues to be the main barrier for convective development. No surprise with the ridge axis remaining overhead. The main adjustment for this evening has been to lower POPs for tomorrow. This dry air has proven to be very persistent and a significant barrier to convective development. Tomorrow should be the final day where this is significant. As the moisture deepens Tuesday, that barrier will erode. Aside from some adjustments to the POPs, no major changes have been made. The forecast remains on track. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions currently across the terminals. Winds are generally light and variable overnight but will become westerly to southwesterly later this morning. A few showers/storms may form across the southern terminals later this afternoon and evening but confidence is too low to mention VCTS or TS in the terminals at this time. Went with VCSH for now at PGD, FMY, and RSW after 16z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 79 88 79 / 40 70 90 70 FMY 93 78 86 78 / 70 70 90 90 GIF 96 76 88 75 / 60 60 90 70 SRQ 93 77 88 77 / 50 70 90 80 BKV 94 72 91 72 / 30 60 80 60 SPG 92 81 88 81 / 50 70 90 80 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley