812
FXUS62 KTBW 091934
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
334 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

An upper-level ridge remains situated across the NE Gulf as the
upper-level NW flow around the high continues to advect a
continental airmass across the FL peninsula. Displacement of the
surface ridge axis farther east means that a low-level SW flow
continues to advect a tropical airmass in at the surface. The
result has been continued subsidence limiting convective growth,
but very warm and humid conditions at the surface. As of 3PM,
"feels-like" temperatures are running between 100 to 105 degrees
as actual air temperatures climb into the mid-to-upper 90s. The
only exception is at the immediate coast, where water temperatures
are holding temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Not exactly
much relief, however.

There is still one more day where a very similar hot and dry pattern
is likely to win out; but after tomorrow, more pronounced change
starts to take place. The upper-level ridge will be eroded over the
next 24 hours as a digging trough in the great lakes advects
shortwave perturbations and eventually an upper-level low into our
region. This happens as a simultaneous surge of tropical moisture
lifts north out of the Caribbean and first into SWFL, then
eventually Central and North Florida. Through the week ahead,
increasing rain chances are expected - a welcome change from the
hot and dry pattern we`ve experienced over the last couple months.

With the likely widespread nature of activity, this could eventually
lead to some concerns for flooding late in the week. Current QPF
totals through the next seven days are as much as 10 to 15 inches
across portions of SWFL. That is a lot of water in a relatively
short amount of time. The good news is that antecedent conditions
are exceptionally dry. Soils will be able to handle significant
quantities of water without much issue, suggesting that this week`s
rains should largely be beneficial and help recharge what has been
lost over the last few months. However, prolonged periods of heavy
rainfall in urban locations may yield isolated pockets of flooding.

Nevertheless, this is the rainy season. Higher weekly rainfall
totals should be expected over the next few months. Occasionally,
this may yield concerns in urban and localized areas. Overall,
though, we need the rain and the change is welcome.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Westerly flow continues into this evening, then winds become light
and variable overnight. A few afternoon storms are expected to
develop south and inland over the next couple of hours, but the
flow may push clouds inland of the terminals before they develop.
Winds increase again from the SW after 15Z, with some morning
showers possible south. VFR conditions will prevail, but MVFR to
IFR will be possible in showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Light winds and seas continue through the middle of the week as a
light onshore flow prevails. As tropical moisture lifts north by the
middle of the week, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
increase across Gulf Waters. Hazardous waves and seas are likely in
the vicinity of storms that develop, but should remain light away
from storms

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

One more warm, dry day is expected tomorrow before coverage and
frequency of storms increases. A surge of tropical moisture, coupled
with an upper-level disturbance, favors a wet second-half to the
week, providing relief from drought conditions across the area. With
no critical RH values expected and generally light winds, red flag
conditions are not anticipated at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  93  79  88 /  10  40  70  80
FMY  79  92  78  87 /  20  70  70  80
GIF  76  96  76  89 /  10  60  50  80
SRQ  80  94  78  89 /  10  50  70  80
BKV  72  95  74  89 /   0  40  50  80
SPG  82  91  80  87 /  10  50  70  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery/Hubbard