620
FXUS62 KTBW 090743
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
343 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Today we will see a split across the state. North of I-4 we will see
drier air with PWs less then 1.5. South of I-4 PW will be higher
especially in SW Florida where PWs could be around 2. This will
cause dry and sunny conditions north of I-4 with showers and storms
possible South of I-4 with highest PoPs in SW Florida this afternoon
and evening. Heat will also be a concern this afternoon thanks to
the slightly drier conditions most of us will experience. Expect
highs in the mid 90`s with heat index in the interior to reach
around 105.

Tropical moisture from the Caribbean will start to move north and
come over the state for next week. Monday and Tuesday will act as
transition days. We will see higher PoPs compared to what we have
seen the last few weeks but not expecting a washout or widespread
showers. The more widespread rain will start on Wednesday and
last at least through next Saturday. PW will be over 2 inches
throughout this time period with cloudy skies. However, since
this moisture will be tropical in nature we will only be expecting
isolated thunderstorms as much of the this event will just be
rain. This will be good news for our drought conditions and
hopefully we see some improvements of that by this time next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 339 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions outside of thunderstorms and westerly winds will
persist through the period. Storm chances will mainly be confined
to SW Florida and the interior portions of the state.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Winds will primarily be out of the west through the
weekend and into Monday and generally stay at or below 10 knots. A
few showers and storms will be possible overnight and into the early
morning hours before storms shift inland through the daytime hours.
Tropical moisture will start to spread across the area Tuesday
through Thursday across the area bringing better chances of
overnight and early morning showers and storms and winds primarily
out of the south.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

We will see drier air filter into the northern half of
Florida. This will keep RHs this afternoon around 40 percent north
of I-4. As we go into early next week we will see tropical moisture
from the Caribbean spread across the state bring with it widespread
showers and high humidity.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  92  79 /  30  20  60  60
FMY  94  78  91  78 /  80  40  80  70
GIF  98  77  95  77 /  50  10  70  50
SRQ  92  79  92  78 /  40  30  70  70
BKV  96  71  95  72 /  20   0  40  50
SPG  92  81  91  82 /  30  20  60  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby